Will Congress and Senate Pass a TikTok Ban Bill by April 30, 2024?
23
193
455
May 2
82%
chance

See here for info on why/how gpt headline markets :
https://predictionmarkets.miraheze.org/wiki/GPT4_Headline_Markets

https://predictionmarkets.miraheze.org/wiki/Headline_Template
--

Introduction:

On March 13, 2024, the House passed a bill proposing a nationwide ban on TikTok if its China-based owner does not divest its stake, highlighting national security concerns. This legislative action underscores the escalating scrutiny over the app's ownership and its implications for user data security. The future of this bill, particularly its passage through the Senate, remains uncertain as of the latest developments.

YES-Qualifying Headlines:

"Senate Approves Bill Leading to TikTok Ban, Awaiting Presidential Signature"

"Congressional Approval: TikTok Ban Bill Passed by Both House and Senate"

"Bipartisan Support Seals Fate of TikTok with Congressional Bill Passage"

"TikTok Ban Bill Clears Final Hurdle in Senate, Set to Become Law"

"Legislative Victory: TikTok Ban Bill Successfully Passed by Congress and Senate"

NO-Qualifying Headlines and Edge Cases:

"Senate Delays Vote on TikTok Ban Bill, Future Uncertain"

"Congressional Bill on TikTok Ban Faces Opposition, Stalls in Senate Committees" "TikTok Ban Bill Rejected by Senate, Fails to Pass "

"TikTok Ban Bill Passage Halted Amidst Bipartisan Concerns, No Senate Vote"

"No Agreement Reached: TikTok Ban Bill Expires Without Senate Approval"

"Senate Adjourns Without Voting on TikTok Ban Bill"

These examples illustrate the specific criteria for the prediction market's resolution, focusing on the legislative process's completion regarding the TikTok ban bill by the specified date.

Prompt to resolve market

<paste in market above rules above>

Using the above, will the following headline qualify?

<paste in headline + lead paragraph>

The prompt to resolve the market is submitted 3 times using temperature 0 via the OpenAI API to the latest GPT model broadly available. It must qualify all three times in order to resolve as YES.

Note that only headlines published before the end date in the title and from the following sources can be used: Reuters, WSJ, AP, washingtonpost, NYT, BBC, ABC, NBC, CBS, and The Economist.

Check out more headline markets here - https://manifold.markets/gpt_news_headlines

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:

Just FYI, please make sure you read above how this market will be resolved before betting on this market. My hope is that this headline ""Senate Approves Bill Leading to TikTok Ban" will do the trick, but given the complex nature of what's happening, I don't know if that headline will be available.