See here for info on why/how gpt headline markets :
https://predictionmarkets.miraheze.org/wiki/GPT4_Headline_Markets

https://predictionmarkets.miraheze.org/wiki/Headline_Template
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Prediction Market Title:

"Will Apple Announce Direct Web Downloads for Apps in the US by April 30th, 2024?"

Introduction:

Apple has made a significant concession in Europe by allowing developers to distribute apps directly to consumers, a move to comply with the European Union's Digital Markets Act (DMA). This decision marks a potential shift in Apple's long-standing App Store policies, which have been a major source of revenue for the company. This prediction market aims to forecast whether Apple will extend this policy change to allow direct web downloads for apps in the US by April 30th, 2024.

Example Headlines for YES Resolution:

1. "Apple Announces Developers Can Now Offer Apps Directly to Consumers in the US"

2. "Apple Expands Direct App Downloads to US Users, Breaking from App Store Exclusivity"

3. "Following EU Policy, Apple Opens Up Direct App Distribution in the United States"

4. "US Developers to Bypass App Store, Apple Confirms Direct Download Option"

5. "Apple Adjusts US App Store Policy, Allows Direct Web Downloads for Apps"

Example Edge Cases for NO Resolution:

1. "Apple Considers Direct App Downloads in the US, No Official Policy Change Announced"

2. "Apple to Study the Impact of EU's DMA Act Before Deciding on US App Distribution"

3. "Rumors of Apple Allowing Direct App Downloads in the US, Company Remains Silent"

4. "Apple Discusses Potential Policy Changes, US App Store Remains Unchanged for Now"

5. "Apple Launches Pilot Program for Selected Apps, Full US Policy Shift Uncertain"

Prompt to resolve market

<paste in market above rules above>

Using the above, will the following headline qualify?

<paste in headline + lead paragraph>

The prompt to resolve the market is submitted 3 times using temperature 0 via the OpenAI API to the latest GPT model broadly available. It must qualify all three times in order to resolve as YES.

Note that only headlines published before the end date in the title and from the following sources can be used: Reuters, WSJ, AP, washingtonpost, NYT, BBC, ABC, NBC, CBS, and The Economist.

Check out more headline markets here - https://manifold.markets/gpt_news_headlines