Will I have a "Successful Week", based on the objective scoring criteria below? (01/18/26)
3
1kṀ765
Jan 25
74%
chance

From the night starting January 18th 2026 (as soon as I begin getting ready for bed - if I don't go to bed by midnight, then beginning at midnight January 18/19) to exactly 7 days later, will I meet at least 5 of the 8 goals below?

-Take adderall on 2 distinct calendar days

-Lift 2x

-Eat >=700g of protein

-Complete and submit at least one externally visible research deliverable (social choice theory undergrad research group)

-Submit all weekly homework on time and show up to all classes within exactly 15 minutes of start time

-Practice solo drums on 2 distinct days (ie group rehearsals don't count, solo does, even if it's just with a practice pad)

-Begin bedtime routine by 2am and be in bed with lights and phone off by 3am on at least 3 distinct days (again, Sunday night counts, regardless of before or after midnight)

-Leave residence by noon on at least 4 distinct days

These are all hard cutoffs. I.e. stepping outside for 30 seconds at 11:59am counts for the daily activation goal, but if it's at 12:01pm it doesn't.

This is part of an attempt to habit track and incentivize sticking to goals. I will only bet YES in this market, to incentivize myself.

I don't yet know what numbers are realistic. My goal is to calibrate the market easier or harder week by week to keep the goals each week doable, but productive. I estimate these initial numbers as around 50% success but I could blow past these goals or not even come close.

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