“WASHINGTON, July 30 (Reuters) - The United States is suspending a "de minimis" exemption that allowed low-value commercial shipments to be shipped to the United States without facing tariffs, the White House said on Wednesday.
Under an executive order signed by President Donald Trump, packages valued at or under $800 sent to the U.S. outside of the international postal network will now face "all applicable duties" starting on August 29, the White House said.”
Market resolves YEA if de minimus is announced to be (or is reinstated) in any capacity after Aug 29. This could be a singular country negotiating for a specific de minimus exemption, or a broader rollback. I would also consider a renewal of de minimus but at a lower dollar threshold YEA. (Ex. De minimus for packages under $500)
Resolves NAY if nothing happens and de minimus remains suspended.
Update 2025-08-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For resolution, a 0% tariff on an import category will be treated as effectively de minimus and count as YEA.
1,000European producers have warned that the consequences of leaving alcohol tariffs at 15 percent could be grave. The Federation of French Wine and Spirits Exporters had previously said a failure to secure an exemption would create an “extremely violent shock.”
"European Union negotiators have been arguing for weeks that America should not apply a 15 percent tariff to wine and spirits and instead maintain a longstanding tradition of keeping alcohol tariffs at zero on both sides of the Atlantic.
But as the United States and the 27-nation bloc move closer to a final text of their recently struck trade agreement, it looks increasingly unlikely that alcohol will catch a break."
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/19/world/europe/tariff-exemption-european-wine-spirits.html