Will I run further than 20km in a single workout in 2023?
26
130
αΉ€960
resolved Dec 31
Resolved
NO

A log of my runs (along with distance in kilometres, and pace in minutes per km) is available here.

This market resolves YES if, between 1 January 2023 and 1 January 2024, I log a run that's further than 20km (regardless of pace).

I'm hoping to use the market price as a realistic estimate of my progress. I will not trade on this market.

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How did the 10k run recently feel? Did you get a sense you could smash out another 5ks or were you pretty much done?

@Bidden Yeah, I actually felt better than I was expecting: physically, I think I could have smashed another 5kms β€” my last km was roughly the same pace as my first km, and my legs were ticking over without complaint β€” but the psychological barrier was big, as it was an out & back route (and so I was right outside my house when I hit 10km). In similar condition with a different route, I feel like 15km is doable, but 20km less plausible.

Also (maybe) worth noting that I decided to run that ~10km once I was running (around 3km into what I previously imagined would be a quick ~5km). This probably speaks to my lack of good judgment w/r/t fitness stuff β€” and my total inability to plan ahead or slow down. I’m totally going by vibe, here! Don’t trust my judgment!

I have no idea if you'll run 20kms in a single workout this year, but I just wanna say that I went through the logs, and it's super impressive that you've run 550+ days over 2.4 years. That's going running every 2 out of 3 days, and regardless of anything else, that's very impressive.

@firstuserhere Thanks! I'm not sure how much credit I should get for some of these β€” there was a while where I could only manage a 1km!

predicted YES

@galen Oh you definitely do. At the start of 2022, I was regularly doing 5ks every day.

Then in late feb, I twisted my ankle, took a week off, went back to doing 3-5ks and within a week, rolled my ankle and couldn't run for 2 months. After that, it was a mental hurdle, and soon, I lost my fitness, and fell out of running routine.

And before you know it, 2022 is over and now I'm trying to do 10k steps a day, and just started to run again. I'll be trying to run 1k each day for the next week, and increase by 1k each week for 10 weeks. So, never underestimate a 1k run! It's the consistency that matters, and yours has been pretty great