Will I record a resting heart rate of 40 or lower on any day in 2023?

Personal Goals•New Year's Resolutions 2024

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resolved Dec 30

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A log of my daily resting heart rate is available here.

These data are exported automatically from Apple Health. Currently, I use an Apple Watch Series 7; in the past, I've used a Garmin Forerunner.

This market resolves YES if, between 1 January 2023 and 1 January 2024, I log a resting heart rate of 40 (or lower).

I'm hoping to use the market price as a realistic estimate of my progress. I will not trade on this market.

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9 Comments

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bought Ṁ100 of NO

This data doesn't include sleep, right?

@HarlanStewart Yeah, that’s correct. Apple Health excludes sleep data, and I’m exporting from Apple Health via a shortcut to generate the csv.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@galen May I know you resting heart rate?

@LostgoldPlayer As mentioned in the question description: http://galen.me/data/logs/resting_heart_rate.csv

bought Ṁ30 of NO

@galen Can I get that shortcut? 🙃

predicted NO

@galen The lowest I can see is 50

@LostgoldPlayer Out of 849 samples, 37 of them are below 50. The lowest so far was recorded on 2021-03-14, with a resting heart rate of 41.

predicted NO

Your resting HR is good but it would take a massive amount of endurance training over years to bring it down under 40 and even then I’m not sure you could. It’s largely genetically constrained.

@NicoDelon To be clear: I strongly agree with you, and the current market price confuses me a little bit (but also provides some useful evidence about the amount of attention on my quantified self markets).