Did the Dobbs v. Jackson leak come from the left?
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resolved May 4
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N/A
Resolves to YES if the leaker: * is identified as pro-choice, OR * clerked or worked for a current liberal SCOTUS justice (Sotomayor, Breyer, Kagan), OR * was upset with the draft opinion Resolves to N/A if the leaker is never identified by the time the market closes. Resolves to NO otherwise. This market is somewhat ambiguous, but I'll use my best judgement. May 6, 12:13pm: To clarify, this market is about the politics of the individual who leaked the draft opinion to Politico, not any other potential leakers.
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Leaker was never identified. Resolving to N/A.

Creating another market that closes a year from today: https://manifold.markets/fortenforge/did-the-dobbs-v-jackson-leak-come-f-48a845fa42b9

There is new reporting out today which marginally bolsters the case for it coming from the right—apparently Roberts was working hard to convince his fellow conservatives to sign on to his more moderate ruling, but those efforts were stymied once the draft leak happened. https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/26/politics/supreme-court-john-roberts-abortion-dobbs/index.html
predicted YES
I don't understand the relatively wishful thinking about this. Almost all liberals more or less say the leak was good; almost all conservatives say it was bad. Why would the leaker think anything different? (For the record, I estimate at least 95% chance it was a liberal; 85% chance Elizabeth Deutsch in particular was involved -- the one the below "informed speculation" attempts to distract attention from.)
I'm specifically interested in the politics of the individual who leaked the draft opinion to Politico. It seems likely that there were other leaks (possibly to Politico and possibly to the WSJ editorial board), but it's the person who leaked the draft opinion that this market is concerned with.
How does it resolve if there are multiple leakers?
Some informed speculation that the leak came from the left: https://www.scotusblog.com/2022/05/how-the-leak-might-have-happened/

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