Did the Dobbs v. Jackson leak come from the left?
65%
chance
May 4, 2023
M$1,523 bet
Resolves to YES if the leaker: * is identified as pro-choice, OR * clerked or worked for a current liberal SCOTUS justice (Sotomayor, Breyer, Kagan), OR * was upset with the draft opinion Resolves to N/A if the leaker is never identified by the time the market closes. Resolves to NO otherwise. This market is somewhat ambiguous, but I'll use my best judgement. May 6, 12:13pm: To clarify, this market is about the politics of the individual who leaked the draft opinion to Politico, not any other potential leakers.
fortenforge

Rahul Sridhar 22 days ago

I'm specifically interested in the politics of the individual who leaked the draft opinion to Politico. It seems likely that there were other leaks (possibly to Politico and possibly to the WSJ editorial board), but it's the person who leaked the draft opinion that this market is concerned with.
MartinRandall

Martin Randall 22 days ago

How does it resolve if there are multiple leakers?
fortenforge

Rahul Sridhar 22 days ago

Some informed speculation that the leak came from the left: https://www.scotusblog.com/2022/05/how-the-leak-might-have-happened/