Would the general public narrative about why Sam Altman was fired from OpenAI be significantly different 1 year later?
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227
370
Nov 30
7%
chance

He was fired 3 days ago. We're getting all sorts of twists and turns and suspenses and reveals in this saga. It's assumed that eventually all this will stabilize and a coherent narrative will emerge which becomes the common public understanding. However, over the year, new facts about the event may come forward when the public pressure is less. Would the narrative for why Sam Altman was fired be significantly different from what it was on November 30th, 2023?

(If the narrative is still not stable-ish, i may alter the start date slightly at my discretion.)

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predicts NO

@firstuserhere might want to extend the close date, which is currently set to EOY 2023

Well, choosing november 30 as the start date for this was quite a coincidence, because Sam is back as the Ceo

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

I think it's vauge now, and it'll be vauge then. We might get some new details, but we already have dozens of details and we don't know which to believe were significant! I feel like people will be spinning new theories for years without us ever getting a proper resolution where everything clicks into place.

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