Will yet another "Trustworthy-ish" user lose their badge in 2023?
29
206
550
resolved Aug 6
Resolved
YES

So far Isaac and then Ammon Lam lost their badges in the last 10 days.

Will there be another trustworthy ish user who loses their badge this year?

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted YES

Reasons for resolution:

predicted NO

@firstuserhere Somehow I simultaneously feel like the resolution is wrong and I can't object to the resolution. I guess I should've autistically considered every interpretation of the market rules.

predicted YES

@42irrationalist I think you assumed it'll be taken away for a specific reason, i.e. nefarious usage or exploits, is that right? There are plenty of markets on "will a trustworthy user lose badge for reason <insert reason: inactiveness, fraud, etc>"

predicted NO

@firstuserhere Yeah, basically. Moreover, this one does not feel like "losing a badge", more like "clarifying a badge". We had two types of trustworthy-ish users: power users and "celebrities". And now we have celebrity status clarified properly.

To use an analogy. Imagine there is a market like "Will I lose more than $100 this year without getting any value in return". Then I find two $100 bills on the ground and a minute later their owner comes to me and asks if I saw them, so I give them their money. I'd argue, I didn't "lose" $200 because the money wasn't mine in the first place.

That's how I feel about celebrity getting a different checkmark: they get the sort of status they should have had in the first place.

Not trying to contest the resolution (I think it's ok to resolve it as YES). Just sharing my thoughts.

bought Ṁ3,000 of YES

See discussion here

sold Ṁ1,000 YES

Saw that AmmonLam was already excluded from this market after I bet. I should have realized there was no way the market wouldn't have corrected long before I found it.

predicted NO

"Loses" in a loose sense, or "loses" as in gets the hammer by mods? If someone requests their badge be taken away because they plan to quit Manifold, does that count?

@Mira he's the former. If it's a voluntary resignation then i don't call it as losing the badge