How many books will I read in 2023?
65
505
αΉ1k
resolved Dec 31
Resolved as
42%

My average books read over the last 11 years is 41.

My average books read over the last 5 years is 66.

Here are my reading stats over the years:

So far, I've read 3 books in 2023. I don't read to achieve a number of books read. It'll be whatever it'll be.

(I'll resolve the market with PROB equal to whatever number of books I've read in 2023)

If by some unexpected way I end up reading more than a 100 books (never happened), then i resolve this as YES instead of PROB and create a new market. Also, I will add a comment with the number of books read so far at the end of each month.

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Statistically, you will read 79 books in 2023 (Excel 1.3). Based on the data provided from 2012 to 2022, I conducted a regression model. With 67% of the data being explained by the model, the accuracy is not as precise but the outcome reflects a rough estimation. The wide prediction interval underscores the substantial year-to-year fluctuation in reading volume, reflecting that while trends can guide expectations, individual reading habits can vary widely from year to year.β

predicted YES

@GabrielTschelisnig Pray tell me what this "Excel 1.3" you've refered to conduct this statistical analysis, is.

bought αΉ0 of NO

Put up a limit order for you at 65, should be a bargain if your estimate is 79!

Do you have a planned reading list?

predicted YES

@IsaacKing no, hardly ever. It's more of a "want to read" list, but i don't have an ordered list i follow.

bought αΉ0 of YES

At 15 now. Almost 16.

bought αΉ20 of NO

Half the year is over and currently at 14 books. Extrapolates to 28%.

do you have a breakdown of previous yearsβ books read in each month? (e.g.

22-jan: 4 books

22-feb: 5 books

22-mar: 8 books

etc)

even an estimate would be helpful for updating each month based on how this-monthβs number compares to the base rate. thanks!

predicted YES

@SaulMunn Yes, one moment, i'll share that graph

predicted YES

@firstuserhere I will mention a few caveats.

1. The graph doesn't write labels for months but each bar corresponds to a month in sequence.

2. The huge peaks of ~16 typically correspond to the end of a semester in college, and me completing my readings.

3. I graduated from college this year, so there are a lot of dynamic factors about when I read and have free time, which won't extrapolate easily from previous years.

bought αΉ40 of NO

@firstuserhere thank you!!

predicted YES

Goodreads profile in case anyone's interested

I'm setting a limit order at 62, which is what I expected myself to accomplish at the start of the year. So far in 3 months i've read 10 books only, and that extrapolates to just 40 books this year.

So, feel free to bet for or against whether I will get to 62 or not

bought αΉ20 of NO

Books suck, I hope you read no more books ever for your sanity. Hence, I am a no bettor.

@SkepticIC Almost everyone is a NO bettor in this market. To provide trading incentive to others, I'll set a limit order.

Books finished in March: 0

Total finished so far, in 3 months: 10

Books I've finished so far in March : 0

However I have a number of books i'm reading in parallel that i will finish soon (but probably in week 1 of april) (5+ books in parallel).

predicted YES

I've only read one book that I actually enjoyed, how do you read so much

February Update:

I read a lot but I did not read a lot of books in February. It is not easy to strike the balance between maintaining old habits + developing new ones.

1. The Sounds of Old Earth

2. Mono no Aware

4. Short Stories by Harry Turtledove: Down in the Bottomlands, the Last Article, the Road Not Taken

predicted YES

@firstuserhere PICK UP THE PACE, I need 100 by the end of the year

predicted YES

1. The ones who walk away from Omelas

2. Good Omens

3. Spark: The Definitive Guide

4. How to Live: 27 conflicting answers and one weird conclusion

5. The wonderful wizard of Oz

bought αΉ20 of YES

@firstuserhere update/edit: 6 read in january.

1. Old man and the sea by Ernst Hemingway

@firstuserhere I loved good omens

bought αΉ49 of YES