My average books read over the last 11 years is 41.
My average books read over the last 5 years is 66.
Here are my reading stats over the years:
So far, I've read 3 books in 2023. I don't read to achieve a number of books read. It'll be whatever it'll be.
(I'll resolve the market with PROB equal to whatever number of books I've read in 2023)
If by some unexpected way I end up reading more than a 100 books (never happened), then i resolve this as YES instead of PROB and create a new market. Also, I will add a comment with the number of books read so far at the end of each month.
1,000
1.00Statistically, you will read 79 books in 2023 (Excel 1.3). Based on the data provided from 2012 to 2022, I conducted a regression model. With 67% of the data being explained by the model, the accuracy is not as precise but the outcome reflects a rough estimation. The wide prediction interval underscores the substantial year-to-year fluctuation in reading volume, reflecting that while trends can guide expectations, individual reading habits can vary widely from year to year.
@GabrielTschelisnig Pray tell me what this "Excel 1.3" you've refered to conduct this statistical analysis, is.
@IsaacKing no, hardly ever. It's more of a "want to read" list, but i don't have an ordered list i follow.
@firstuserhere I will mention a few caveats.
The graph doesn't write labels for months but each bar corresponds to a month in sequence.
The huge peaks of ~16 typically correspond to the end of a semester in college, and me completing my readings.
I graduated from college this year, so there are a lot of dynamic factors about when I read and have free time, which won't extrapolate easily from previous years.
@SkepticIC Almost everyone is a NO bettor in this market. To provide trading incentive to others, I'll set a limit order.
February Update:
I read a lot but I did not read a lot of books in February. It is not easy to strike the balance between maintaining old habits + developing new ones.
Books read in February:
The Sounds of Old Earth
Mono no Aware
Dead Man's Planet
Short Stories by Harry Turtledove: Down in the Bottomlands, the Last Article, the Road Not Taken
@DesTiny i had two flights each of 2 hrs today. I walked around the airport listening to a short book, i read another short book on flight 1 and another on flight 2. That's 3 books today. It's my record and i read a lot today ok?