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Barcelona heads to Portugal in search of another 3 points in the Champions League. Both teams started with a win in round one, Barca beating Royal Antwerp 5-0, and Porto with a 3-1 win over Shakhtar Donetsk. This won’t be the first time that the two European powers have met. If we see past results, out of 8 occasions Barcelona won 5 (Winning the last four occasions) and lost 3, resulting in a 62.5% winning percentage over Porto. Adding on, Porto will face some challenges against Barcelona due to player injuries. Some of the players are; Marcano, Evanilson, Gabriel Veron and Zaidu Sanusi. Due to the limited payer list, Porto lost their last game 1-0 against their rivals Benfica. In fact, Barcelona hasn't lost a single game this season. My prediction is 2-0 win for Barcelona. 

@SebastianRozas The start of the analyses (Rozas, 2023) with historical data on the previous matches between Barca and Porto and mentioned Barca's winning streak in the last 4 games is good (UEFA.com, 2023).

Later, when mentioning Porto's players' injuries (Transfermarkt, 2023a), it would be interesting to have the link referring to them and explain what positions lack critical players for the team. In this case, the central defender and right-wing; hence, Porto will suffer on conner-kicks and lose attacking power, lowering their probability to defend against headers and convert goals. Thus, we understand what areas Porto will be vulnerable to against Barca. This data would help the analyses of the current market conditions.

Another statistical analysis worth including is the actual ODDS of the bet itself. In Manifold, betting YES on Barca's win has a potential payout of +36%, translating into a "safe bet" with lower risk and profit. Nonetheless, comparing the potential payout of betting YES (+36%) instead of betting NO (+255.8%) should be included, even though the probability of Porto winning is lower.

Finally, we would still make the same bet on Barca's win because it is a reasonable outcome considering historical data, current market conditions, and the potential for profit in the +36% payout.

Team 10:

Paul Hawes, Wagner Lessa, Sebastian Prieto, Ganga Singh, Eduardo Soto, Juan Soto.

@WagnerLessa Team 10:

Paul Hawes, Wagner Lessa, Sebastian Prieto, Ganga Singh, Eduardo Soto, Juan Soto.