This market resolves as YES if I am admitted as a PhD student at any accredited research university, anywhere in the world, before January 1, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves as NO. In the event that I complete my M.A. and decide not to pursue a PhD, this question resolves as NO early.

I expect that my application will be of high quality, since I have a track record of academic success and am very confident in my ability to succeed in my M.A. program and produce a good thesis. I will be applying widely, probably sending applications to 10 or more universities, primarily in the American West. I will most likely complete these applications around the end of 2024, as my expected graduation date for my M.A. is June 2025.

Since my admission as a PhD student is not entirely within my control - ultimately, it is up to each university's Geography department faculty - I may bet on this market. I will not bet after receiving any sort of admission letter or other formal offer of admission to a PhD program; instead, I will instantly resolve this market to YES. I can provide proof of my admission to a PhD program if requested, probably in the form of a screenshot of an email or a letter. Details such as my name may be censored to protect my privacy. Admission to a single university is enough to trigger YES resolution.

In the event that I spontaneously combust or something before this market is resolved, this market should probably resolve as N/A rather than NO.