This market resolves as YES if a verified air temperature reading of 60 Celsius (140 Fahrenheit) or higher is taken on Earth's surface at any point between market creation and December 31, 2039 (inclusive.) Otherwise, this market resolves as NO on January 1, 2040.
Additional context
The current record-holder is 56.7 Celsius/134.1 Fahrenheit, measured at Furnace Creek in Death Valley in 1913. Some scientists argue that the temperature was measured incorrectly and should be decertified as the record holder; if so, the highest temperature would either be 54.4 Celsius at Furnace Creek (if certified; measured in 2020 and 2021) or 54.0 Celsius in Death Valley (2013) and Kuwait (2016.)
Climate models suggest that Earth's climate will continue to warm over the next several decades, making extremely high air temperatures more likely - particularly as heatwaves become more common and more intense.
Fine print
The reading must display a temperature equal to or greater than 60.0 Celsius for this market to resolve as YES. An air temperature reading of 59.5 C, 59.51 C, or 59.99 C would not be sufficient for a YES resolution.
The temperature must be verified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO.) If an air temperature of 60 C or higher is measured by 2040, but hasn't been verified by 2040, then this question will remain open until the measurement is either verified or debunked. This may take a few years. The initial closing date is January 1, 2040, but it will be pushed back if needed. Only an air temperature measured by a reputable organization like the National Weather Service is sufficient to cause this question to remain open - a photo of a thermometer in someone's backyard is too easy to fake.
Only air temperatures measured on Earth's surface are sufficient to cause this market to resolve as YES. Sattelite readings of air temperatures are not as reliable. Ground temperatures obviously don't count - the record ground temperature is already over 90 Celsius. The reading can be anywhere on the Earth's surface, in any country, at any time of day. The air temperature must be measured outside of a building, and measured in a way that is standard for the measurement of weather/climate data.
If the World Meteorological Organization no longer exists by the time a record is set, I'll resolve this based on verification by another trustworthy meteorological body such as NOAA, the National Weather Service, etc.
1,000
3.00@evergreenemily you may find this interesting if you haven’t seen it already: https://s.campbellsci.com/documents/us/miscellaneous/measurement-uncertainty-death-valley-temperatures.pdf
Especially the bottom right panel about extremes and wmo guidance
It was found at link below when I was searching for the sensors and methodology that is used at furnace creek (couldn’t find any yet)
https://www.campbellsci.com/blog/death-valley-collaboration-update
@Lovre I dunno, I'd consider "rapid destruction of ecosystems" a negative consequence for myself. I like old-growth forests, they're pretty...and mass extinctions make me sad, too.
@Lovre I agree this is possible, not sure whether there would be trustworthy meteorological bodies in that case.
@StevenK If that does end up happening by 2040 (I think it's unlikely, but who knows?) then I'd take the aligned AI's words at face value and it would probably have the ability to monitor weather/climate across the planet. (I'm assuming that a superintelligent AI that shows no interest in harming humans is probably trustworthy.)
@evergreenemily In such a scenario, if it's only over 60 degrees because of industrial waste heat, arguably the "The air temperature must be measured outside of a building, and measured in a way that is standard for the measurement of weather/climate data." part isn't satisfied.
@StevenK I don't see any other reason for thinking that record high temperatures will start increasing 5-10 times faster, so I think the entire question will turn on this.
@StevenK (1) because tail behavior can be much more extreme than mean behavior , (2) because most people betting on this market don't know those statistics
@jonsimon I bet No for similar reasons, my understanding was that the warming has been pretty gradual, and the more noticable heatwave this year was largely due to reduced emissions from container ships
@jonsimon Do you mean tail behavior is more strongly affected by the warming trend than mean behavior? That could be true, I haven't looked into it, but it seems like it would be hard for it to make this much difference.
@StevenK Yeah I'm saying that even if the average temperature is only 0.2 degrees warmer, the most extreme high temperature might be a degree or more warmer. I agree though that it probably wouldn't be enough to resolve this market to Yes. You'll notice I'm a No holder.
@jonsimon Is there any reason to think the extremes are that much more sensitive than the average? (I agree that it wouldn't be sufficient if they were, though there's 1.6 decades left.)
@StevenK Now that I think about it you're right that if the mean of the distribution is shifting but the overall shape of the distribution remains the same, then I think the behavior at the tails should match the behavior of the mean.
But in the case of climate change I believe that this increase in the mean of the temperature distribution is also being accompanied by an increase in the variance, which disproportionately affects the tails of the distribution.
@jonsimon Maybe; I'm having trouble finding good information with a quick search. What I'm finding doesn't support the increase in variance being anywhere near big enough, e.g. record temperatures in the 1990s in Death Valley were only about a degree lower, and that's further in the past than 2040 is in the future. https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/CA/Death-Valley/extreme-annual-death-valley-high-temperature.php
@StevenK If you don't count the 1913 number, the world record went up by half a degree in the past 17 years, so why would it go up by five and a half degrees in the next 17?
@RobertReithb9b4 Then good luck getting that recognized by the World Meteorological Organization.