Can Manifold rank all U.S. states by margin in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, from most to least Democratic?

#US Politics #2024 US Presidential Election #Politics #Experimental

173

Ṁ2k

Ṁ2.9k

Nov 5

ALL

17%

Alabama

48%

Alaska

54%

Arizona

14%

Arkansas

90%

California

72%

Colorado

83%

Connecticut

76%

Delaware

46%

Florida

53%

Georgia

91%

Hawaii

10%

Idaho

75%

Illinois

27%

Indiana

42%

Iowa

44%

Kansas

24%

Kentucky

31%

Louisiana

66%

Maine

90%

Maryland

Here's how this works:

This market closes the day before Election Day.

Once the final margins are known for every state in the U.S. - likely at some point in early December - this market will resolve as follows:

Most Democratic state, by margin: YES
Second-most Democratic state: PROB 98%

Third-most Democratic state: PROB 96%

. . . (etc.) . . .

Third-least Democratic state: PROB 6%

Second-least Democratic state: PROB 4%

Least Democratic state: PROB 2%

D.C. is not included, and neither are the individual congressional districts of Nebraska and Maine.

This creates an incentive structure for Manifold to correctly order the states of the U.S. from most Democratic to least - a very difficult task, and one I'm curious to see how well this site can pull off!

Get Ṁ600 play money

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Discrete ones for the highest and lowest state:

bought Ṁ30 of Answer #a9414c542d64 YES

ok, I think I got them organized into approximately the right order

@JosephNoonan I wish Manifold would display them in order...does it just take a while to update?

@evergreenemily I think it's because this one is a multiple choice, not a free response.

@JosephNoonan Oh, that explains it. I wish there was a toggle to display them differently...

@evergreenemily YIPPEE

@evergreenemily They still display out of order for me. In fact, now all unlinked questions display out of order for me.

bought Ṁ5 of Answer #7d61e1241bc3 YES

@JosephNoonan Do you not have access to that sort menu thing?

@evergreenemily Oh, I didn't see it before

bought Ṁ15 of Answer #5ec89ed05a1c NO

Will this be resolved based on

A. The Democratic % of the total vote in the state, or

B. The Dem % minus the R %

@connorwilliams97 The latter!

bought Ṁ5 of Alaska NO

If we go from 100% to 0% by increments of 2%, including the endpoints, there have to 51 total elements. Since this doesn't include D.C. or Congressional districts, how will you fill all 51 slots? I guess you could just skip the middle and have the 25th most Democrat state resolve to 52% and the 26th most resolve to 48%. Or you have the skip occur between the Democratic state with the smallest margin and the Republican state with the smallest margin.

bought Ṁ40 of Answer #1ef572fe8c58 NO

@JosephNoonan Oh, whoops, you're right! I'll fix that by having the least-Democratic state resolve to 2%. I'd include DC, but that's just free mana on YES...

Thanks for catching that so early!

bought Ṁ20 of California YES

This is amazing. How do you keep coming up with these interesting market ideas?

@dittopoop Time! I've been sitting on these ideas for months. There's a reason I've been so rabid about wanting unlinked multiple choice markets - something about them just clicks with the way my creativity works!