Can Manifold rank all U.S. states by margin in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, from most to least Democratic?
12
2.9kṀ1991Nov 5
17%
Alabama
44%
Alaska
54%
Arizona
14%
Arkansas
90%
California
72%
Colorado
83%
Connecticut
76%
Delaware
46%
Florida
52%
Georgia
91%
Hawaii
75%
Illinois
27%
Indiana
42%
Iowa
40%
Kansas
24%
Kentucky
31%
Louisiana
66%
Maine
90%
Maryland
93%
Massachusetts
Here's how this works:
This market closes the day before Election Day.
Once the final margins are known for every state in the U.S. - likely at some point in early December - this market will resolve as follows:
Most Democratic state, by margin: YES
Second-most Democratic state: PROB 98%
Third-most Democratic state: PROB 96%
. . . (etc.) . . .
Third-least Democratic state: PROB 6%
Second-least Democratic state: PROB 4%
Least Democratic state: PROB 2%
D.C. is not included, and neither are the individual congressional districts of Nebraska and Maine.
This creates an incentive structure for Manifold to correctly order the states of the U.S. from most Democratic to least - a very difficult task, and one I'm curious to see how well this site can pull off!
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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