Can Manifold rank all U.S. states by margin in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, from most to least Democratic?
Basic
12
แน€1991
Nov 5
17%
Alabama
44%
Alaska
54%
Arizona
14%
Arkansas
90%
California
72%
Colorado
83%
Connecticut
76%
Delaware
46%
Florida
52%
Georgia
91%
Hawaii
10%
Idaho
75%
Illinois
27%
Indiana
42%
Iowa
40%
Kansas
24%
Kentucky
31%
Louisiana
66%
Maine
90%
Maryland

Here's how this works:

This market closes the day before Election Day.

Once the final margins are known for every state in the U.S. - likely at some point in early December - this market will resolve as follows:

Most Democratic state, by margin: YES
Second-most Democratic state: PROB 98%

Third-most Democratic state: PROB 96%

. . . (etc.) . . .

Third-least Democratic state: PROB 6%

Second-least Democratic state: PROB 4%

Least Democratic state: PROB 2%

D.C. is not included, and neither are the individual congressional districts of Nebraska and Maine.

This creates an incentive structure for Manifold to correctly order the states of the U.S. from most Democratic to least - a very difficult task, and one I'm curious to see how well this site can pull off!

Get
แน€1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Discrete ones for the highest and lowest state:

ok, I think I got them organized into approximately the right order

@JosephNoonan I wish Manifold would display them in order...does it just take a while to update?

@evergreenemily I think it's because this one is a multiple choice, not a free response.

@JosephNoonan Oh, that explains it. I wish there was a toggle to display them differently...

@evergreenemily They still display out of order for me. In fact, now all unlinked questions display out of order for me.

@JosephNoonan Do you not have access to that sort menu thing?

@evergreenemily Oh, I didn't see it before

Will this be resolved based on

A. The Democratic % of the total vote in the state, or

B. The Dem % minus the R %

?

@connorwilliams97 The latter!

If we go from 100% to 0% by increments of 2%, including the endpoints, there have to 51 total elements. Since this doesn't include D.C. or Congressional districts, how will you fill all 51 slots? I guess you could just skip the middle and have the 25th most Democrat state resolve to 52% and the 26th most resolve to 48%. Or you have the skip occur between the Democratic state with the smallest margin and the Republican state with the smallest margin.

@JosephNoonan Oh, whoops, you're right! I'll fix that by having the least-Democratic state resolve to 2%. I'd include DC, but that's just free mana on YES...

Thanks for catching that so early!

This is amazing. How do you keep coming up with these interesting market ideas?

@dittopoop Time! I've been sitting on these ideas for months. There's a reason I've been so rabid about wanting unlinked multiple choice markets - something about them just clicks with the way my creativity works!

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