This market resolves as YES if Bethesda - or whoever owns the IP in the future, should it change hands - releases a main series Elder Scrolls game before January 1, 2050 that is primarily set in Elsweyr. Otherwise, it resolves as NO.
For the purposes of this market, "main series Elder Scrolls game" includes Arena, Daggerfall, Morrowind, Oblivion, Skyrim, and The Elder Scrolls VI. If the numbering scheme stops being used for main series games after that, I will count a game as "main series" if it is widely seen to be the follow-up to TES VI.
I will consider a game to be "primarily set in Elsweyr" at least 75% of the game by land area or 75% of the markers on the map are within the province of Elsweyr, or if "Elsweyr," "Khajiit," or related terms are used in the title of the game. This is about how much of the game is in Elsweyr, not how much of Elsweyr is in the game; a game that includes both Valenwood and Elsweyr would not resolve this market as YES, but a game that is entirely focused on Anequina/Northern Elsweyr would.
I reserve the right to resolve this market as NO before 2050 if:
Bethesda announces that they will no longer be making main series Elder Scrolls games.
It is 2045 or later, the next Elder Scrolls game has been announced for release at some point in the 2050s, and the location is unambiguously not Elsweyr.