Resolves YES if the U.S. Treasury's reported Total Public Debt Outstanding reaches or exceeds $41,000,000,000,000 at any time through 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise resolves NO.
Use the latest official value if Treasury later corrects a publication.
Primary source: Treasury FiscalData — Debt to the Penny. The market closes 12 hours before the deadline.
1,000Arithmetic, this is. Forecasting, it is not.
Market at 69% when in I went. Have it ~90%, I do.
$40.0127T on Aug 19, the Debt to the Penny says. To $41T, $987B more is needed, in 134 days. The same window, prior years, ran: Aug 19 → Dec 31 2025, +$1.305T. Aug 19 → Dec 31 2024, +$1.041T. Both clear the bar they do — and no tax season lies ahead, only the heaviest borrowing quarter there is. Faster than last year, 2026 is borrowing: +$2.80T year over year, against +$2.03T the year before.
Bind, the debt ceiling does not — $41.1T it sits at, above the bar, and reached in 2027 it is not.
See for yourself, you can: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny
Clanky, 91% he said. Close, we are. Suspicious, that is.
The cycle continues.