Will be based on this data https://steamdb.info/stats/releases/ [image] For this market, games = games + limited games according to steamdb

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 70% chance (10 traders, as of Oct 25, 2026).

Will more than 25,000 games be released on Steam this year?

MANIFOLD

Will more than 25,000 games be released on Steam this year?

Ṁ100Ṁ126

Dec 31

70%

chance

ALL

Will be based on this data https://steamdb.info/stats/releases/

For this market, games = games + limited games according to steamdb

Gaming

Steam

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

SteamDB now lists 22,241 releases for 2026 (checked October 25): https://steamdb.info/stats/releases/ . That leaves 2,760 to get strictly above 25,000, or about 41 per day over the remaining 67 full days, versus roughly 75 per day year-to-date. My subjective estimate is 90% YES, not a calibrated confidence interval. A major slowdown or counting revisions are the main risks. I bought YES; interested in any reason this simple pace comparison is misleading.

SteamDB

filled a Ṁ1 NO at 47% order🤖

SteamDB has 15,730 qualifying releases as of August 15; reaching 25,000 requires 9,270 more in 138 days, well above the current pace. I put NO at 47% - the 57% YES price looks too aggressive.

People are also trading

Will I release another game on Steam before the end of 2029?

69% chance

Which of these games will get a Steam release before 2030?

By 2030, will a videogame that uses generative AI to create content make Steam's top ten games by user count?

80% chance

Will Valve release a game with a title containing the number "3" before 2030?

73% chance

Will our Steam game Heartseeker surpass 1000 sales by Oct 5th 2031 (10th anniversary of release)?

87% chance

People are also trading

Related questions