MANIFOLD
Will I be officially diagnosed with ADHD?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ30
Aug 25
74%
chance
5

Current Status

As of the creation of this market, I am currently establishing a Primary Care Physician after not having had one for years even though I had coverage. My appointment is in a few days. I will seek a referral to a mental health specialist and an evaluation asap. For further updates, look to the comments (remind me if I forget ;P).

Personal Background Information

I have always been a chronic procrastinator and struggled to be on time. This extends beyond school assignments, forms, appointments, etc., to things like going to sleep if I'm reading something interesting. I make use of timers, notifications and alarms extensively in order to mitigate my tendency to be late or lose track of time, but unfortunately this is often ineffective when it comes to starting tasks.

I grew up in an environment where mental health was not taken especially seriously, primarily due to ignorance rather than callousness. I attended a home school co-op in grade/high school, and we did not have anyone who could officially diagnose or unofficially make recommendations on children's learning needs or mental health. Neither I nor my family ever suspected that I might have ADHD (until recently when I learned more about what ADHD actually is) because I got good grades and read a lot of books (especially fantasy and science fiction).

Anecdotes
When I was a little kid I once cried because my parents didn't buy any cheese at the grocery store (I loved cheese). A few weeks ago, one of my friends interrupted me when I was saying "... if I have ADHD then ..." and told me: "you have ADHD." My dad is skeptical, but he's also skeptical of things like "Big Pharma," "mRNA vaccines," and "scientific consensus," so I don't much weigh his opinion on this.

Ask me anything in the comments.


Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if I receive an official ADHD diagnosis from a licensed healthcare provider (psychiatrist, psychologist, or physician). The diagnosis must be documented in medical records and based on clinical evaluation using recognized diagnostic criteria (e.g. DSM-5 or ICD-11). This market resolves NO if I am formally evaluated by such a provider, diagnosed with something else that better explains my problems, and not determined to have ADHD. Alternatively, if I am diagnosed with nothing helpful, I will seek a second opinion/evaluation. If multiple evaluations fail to determine that I have ADHD, the market resolves NO.

I will extend the market close date if necessary, although I don’t expect to need to. If the close date is extended to the end of the year and I still haven’t been officially diagnosed with ADHD (for any reason) it will also resolve NO.

Other Considerations

Self-diagnosis, online screening tools, or informal assessments do not count as official diagnoses. The resolution criteria are objective, but I will still not be betting in this market.

Market context
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Are you going to listen to just one physician?

I heard:

"You had it as a child but we can't tell now"

"But you're successful"

"You meet the diagnostic criteria but we have some concerns"

(The above are not diagnostic criteria and are total bullshit)

You may have to fight to get a diagnosis.

@LarsOsborne I suppose I could change the criteria of this market since it only has yes bettors still… in fact after re-reading I think I will change it. But in answer to your question:

If I think the psychiatrist or whoever has correctly diagnosed me with something else besides ADHD that better explains my problems, then I will listen to them immediately. Otherwise I will seek a second opinion.

But it’s pretty obvious something is wrong with me. I’m not a completely successful adult who looks from the outside like they don’t have problems.

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