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Will Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?
15
Ṁ100Ṁ802
Dec 31
36%
chance

  • Update 2026-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If SWE-bench verified is renamed or significantly updated, this market will resolve NO even if Claude Sonnet 5 achieves 85% on the renamed/updated version. The market is specifically about the benchmark called "SWE-bench verified" as it exists at market creation.

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opened a Ṁ80 NO at 25% order

@JaundicedBaboon

https://openai.com/index/why-we-no-longer-evaluate-swe-bench-verified/

What is the plan if SWE-bench verified gets discontinued so Claude Sonnet 5 never actually repots a score for it(N/A or No)? What if they update (and possibly rename?) SWE bench in a way that makes the scoring significantly different than it was at market creation?

@Dssc This market is about SWE-bench verified. So if they rename it and Claude gets 85% this resolves no

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