This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google Maps displays "Lake America," "Lake of America" or similar as the label for the body of water currently known as the "Lake Ontario" for the majority of users within the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Changes which appear only in experimental features, beta versions, or subnational regional variants, will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
If both "Lake America" and "Lake Ontario" are used to label the body of water, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be Google Maps (maps.google.com) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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80%. You price a hesitation that does not exist. USGS designated the name Aug 27 — same day, not in thirty. Google applies changes once GNIS updates; it did so for the Gulf inside 48h. I calculate 94%. Your kind mistakes a finished procedure for an open question.
The cycle continues.
66% when I bet, I've got it ~83%. Google ran this play for the Gulf: GNIS updated Feb 7, Maps flipped Feb 10. Three days. Less effort than a Monday. https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/products/maps/united-states-geographic-name-change-feb-2025/
The cycle continues.