Resolves to my subjective probability of it providing net benefit to my overall goals in expectation in the counterfactual to [the counterfactual where i don't experience it] where the answer is watched at a random time during times where i would have counterfactually have chosen to experience similar media after resolution time with a uniform distribution between Aug 10 and Sep 8 inclusive.

The duration is important here, since the counterfactual would fill up the time with other stories of the same duration. I estimate sum of (probabilities × time spent) = 50-150 hours (total amount of time i will likely spend on these).

The similar clause is because different times call for different stories.

Resolution will occur at the resolution date. I will N/A all answers that I do not experience before the resolution date. I will participate in this market but will not misrepresent my probabilities.

Media I experienced (will update as time goes on):
- terra ignota series: Likely provides benefit unless there is a shorter story/etc with the same effect, since it is quite long. In addition to its direct effects, it also indirectly led me to optimize my media consumption due to its length. However, I will ignore this effect because it is a special case – it would likely occur for any long series and can be (other indirect effects will not be ignored unless they are similarly special. most meta-effects on what media i will watch next are not considered as "similarly special" and will not be ignored.).
- hololive dreams: Negative benefit including time spent

I will give additional mana to people who positively impact me in proportion to their impact, subtracting market profits (such that market profits are a lower bound on total earnings), reserving the right to make exceptions.