Resolves YES iff there is a successful AI-assisted, or autonomously AI executed, cyber attack on the real-time gross settlement system (eg Fedwire in the US, Europe's T2) of any OECD country by January 1st 2028.
The qualifying attack should result in the settlement system going offline for at least two hours, and must be the result of a deliberate attack by a third party that uses AI as a major part of the attack, or is itself an AI, according to credible reporting. Disruptions attributable to human error or internal operational failures do not count.
1,000@brod can you help clarify something about the intent/deliberate nature of this market?
For example, what if an AI attack takes down "a huge amount of stuff" all at once, including one of the listed entities, but was not directly targeting that? Does this still resolve Yes if the major payment system was only collateral damage?
@Eliza yeah good question. i think a qualifying attack counts even if the RTGS outage was collateral (or wasn’t the “terminal” or final target) - ie still counts if it was just instrumental to some other end. don’t want resolution hanging on whether AI “intended” to take an RTGS down, more so whether it actually did.