I used Wean Caffeine tapering-dose pills to finally break my addiction. I bought several boxes and did each dose for three days to reduce the shock! I found the last, lowest dose the hardest to give up without withdrawal headaches.

I found that i sleep more deeply and am less likely to wake up with a headache that NEEDS caffeine to go away. Wishing you great success!

Just realized this market will probably end up NA so I'm out to look for something more likely to give returns

I did the exact same thing (though 8 weeks), ended up coming back. Coffee is great.

How does the market resolve if you fail to abstain? N/A or NO?

I tried quitting caffeine but I got horrible headaches. It's way harder than I thought it would be.

@AlexbGoode N/A

My caffeine usage is way higher than that (5 cups a day) but I went caffeine free for Lent last year, and promptly came back. It's not horrible, but stimulants are useful for a reason.

This leans slightly towards self-fulfilling. You will probably know your own answer by week 8 or 9, and you will be motivated to finish until week 10 if you do indeed endorse it. If you know the answer in week 9 and it’s “no”, are you going to continue the experiment regardless?

@capybara I expect I will continue the experiment regardless. I'd be down to make a meta-market about this, though :P

I picked 10 weeks because it's how long I think it'll take me to be convinced that I "know what it's like to be off caffeine". If I'm at week 9 and I'm leaning no, I'll still have a fairly clear voice in me saying "you originally thought it would take 10 weeks to know. You might be at the tail end of adjustment right now. It would suck to not see the whole thing through, especially because of how costly re-experimentation would be."

But I obviously can't promise that P(stick with it) is symmetric. It is not.