Will I be done writing a LessWrong article about my current moral frameworks by end of November?
Will I be done writing a LessWrong article about my current moral frameworks by end of November?
17
270Ṁ1278
resolved Dec 1
Resolved
NO

I keep talking about my own moral framework which I've discovered here on Manifold in ACX meetups, and I keep being reminded that I should just go and write about it.

I will only bet YES on this market

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ95
2Ṁ77
3Ṁ70
4Ṁ39
5Ṁ30


Sort by:
predictedNO 1y

are we going again in December? 🙃

predictedYES 1y

@shankypanky Hmm, maybe for january 15th?

My main problem is that I intended to leave Manifold soon-ish, I feel that it's become too big and that I'm not getting a lot out of it (should work on that prisma port so I can host many instances between friends/communities), and I am less sure of how I want to prioritize this article (I like creating this market as a commitment to working actively on it I think?).

I don't know, I could also create the question just as a passive interest too

predictedYES 1y

@shankypanky Okay, in hyper mode again and wanting to make it a high priority, so here you go 😁

https://manifold.markets/epiphanie_gedeon/will-i-finnish-my-cooperationism-le

predictedNO
predictedNO 1y

This can resolve NO? @epiphanie_gedeon

predictedYES 1y

Seems like I'm indeed not going to get finnished writing it in time (4500 words now), I do appologize for that

predictedYES 1y

Update: Worked about 3 hours writing it today, I'm at 3500 words though a lot of them will need to be cut down. I have a general understanding of what kind of focus I want to put on it, and it does seem valuable for me to finish writing it this month.

1y

What's the current status?

I'm looking forward to reading it!

predictedYES 1y

@shankypanky Thanks for checking in!
Current status is mostly time spent on formalization and edge-cases, global plan and intro/first section is made and I just have to decide what level of details I would want to use.

1y

@epiphanie_gedeon oh, so the hardest part haha

(or maybe that's just me - I'm terrible at narrowing my focus and it's such a barrier)

Nice to hear you're advancing 🙌

I'm going with Yes ✔️

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy