Will OpenAI release GPT-5 this summer (2024) as BusinessInsider claims?
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Link to BusinessInsider's Article: https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-launch-better-gpt-5-chatbot-2024-3

The generative AI company helmed by Sam Altman is on track to put out GPT-5 sometime mid-year, likely during summer, according to two people familiar with the company.

Some enterprise customers have recently received demos of the latest model and its related enhancements to the ChatGPT tool, another person familiar with the process said. These people, whose identities Business Insider has confirmed, asked to remain anonymous so they could speak freely.

"It's really good, like materially better," said one CEO who recently saw a version of GPT-5. OpenAI demonstrated the new model with use cases and data unique to his company, the CEO said. He said the company also alluded to other as-yet-unreleased capabilities of the model, including the ability to call AI agents being developed by OpenAI to perform tasks autonomously.

OpenAI is still training GPT-5, one of the people familiar said. After training is complete, it will be safety tested internally and further "red teamed," a process where employees and typically a selection of outsiders challenge the tool in various ways to find issues before it's made available to the public. There is no specific timeframe when safety testing needs to be completed, one of the people familiar noted, so that process could delay any release date.

UPDATE:

OpenAI responded with this when asked by ArsTechnica:

RESOLUTION

  • Will resolve as Yes if GPT-5 is released before September 1st (first day of Fall / Autumn)

  • Does the model need to be called GPT-5 explicitly? It depends

    • If it’s called GPT 4.5 — resolve no

    • If it’s called GPT 5 — resolve yes

  • If they drop the “GPT-n” naming convention all together then that’s a little trickier to resolve but I’d probably base it off whether it matches what Sam has said about GPT-5 publicly:

    • Have they released other things before it (as Sam mentions they will in Lex transcript above)?

    • Is the leap from the GPT-4 to the new model akin to the leap from GPT-3 to GPT-4 (as Sam has mentioned it will be) or is it more incremental?

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opened a Ṁ25 YES at 30% order

What if GPT5 is released much earlier than they claimed, for example, in April?

@ProjectVictory If it’s much earlier (e.g. April like you said) then I’d resolve No as I don’t think that would be considered “mid-year”.

BI states:

sometime mid-year, likely during summer

But if it’s slightly before summer(e.g. May) I’d consider that mid-year & resolve Yes

bought Ṁ40 NO

@elf Does it have to be called GPT-5 specifically?

@Joshua Good question. The main point of contention I’ve seen online is whether the report is actually referring to an incremental update like GPT 4.5.

Interestingly, ArsTechnica received this response from OpenAI when they asked about the BI article:

So to answer your question:

  • If it’s called GPT 4.5 — no

  • If it’s called GPT 5 — yes

If they drop the “GPT-n” naming convention all together then that’s a little trickier to resolve but I’d probably base it off whether it matches what Sam has said about GPT-5 publicly:

  • Have they released other things before it (as Sam mentions they will in Lex transcript above)?

  • Is the leap from the GPT-4 to the new model akin to the leap from GPT-3 to GPT-4 (as Sam has mentioned it will be) or is it more incremental?

bought Ṁ10 NO

I trust the article but a delay seems totally possible

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