Will Primoz Roglic race for Team Jumbo–Visma in 2024?
23
725
410
resolved Mar 14
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if Primož Roglič participates in a UCI road race for Team Jumbo-Visma during 2024.

Resolves NO if he does not particpate in any UCI road races in 2024, and also resolves NO as soon as he participates in a UCI road race for another team after transfering teams (even in the very unlikely scenario that he would return later to Jumbo-Visma for another race).

If the team changes its name, I will still resolve with the 2023 team name. Similarly, if Team Jumbo-Visma merges with another team, for example if Roglic remains in the merged team (and races for it), it resolves YES.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ300
2Ṁ257
3Ṁ137
4Ṁ113
5Ṁ91
Sort by:
predicted NO

@egroj are you willing to resolve based on Primoz's definitive announcement that he's leaving, or in a few days when he actually announces new team? https://velo.outsideonline.com/road/primoz-roglic-confirms-he-will-leave-jumbo-visma/

@JCE I'll wait until the first race of 2024 that he participates in

sold Ṁ111 of NO

While the situation with Jumbo-Visma seems to have developed toward leaving, it kind of strikes me that 6% is probably a little bit too low. I sold half my No shares.

predicted NO

Cycling Manifold is just a bunch of markets rising or falling 80% in 24 hours 😂

predicted NO

There are too many of these now to keep track of, I can't handle it. I made a multiple choice market:

bought Ṁ200 of NO
sold Ṁ119 of NO

The way I see it, if Jumbo merges with Soudal, either Roglic or Remco will leave, but probably not both?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Eliza Agreed. I think Remco could make peace with Jonas and Sepp, but not Primoz. I think it makes it more likely that Primoz leaves, which still gives Jumbo Sepp, Remco, Jonas, and then Landa.

predicted NO

@JCE But that's only if they merge? I think the Vuelta didn't make him happy, I still think he's out.

predicted NO

@Iamczecksy Yea, only if they merge, and yes, agree, or at least have money on no.

bought Ṁ70 of NO

How would you resolve if this happens and he rides for the combined team?

https://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/jumbo-visma-working-on-merger-with-soudal-quick-step/

predicted NO

@Eliza I would resolve as if the merged team is still the current Jumbo, so if he stays and races for the merged team, it resolves YES. I made the change in the description to consider that scenario. Thanks for the news!

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Also, I created a Dashboard for the 2023-2024 transfer season:

https://manifold.markets/dashboard/road-cycling-transfers-20232024

Follow along and I will try to keep transfer markets on there.

predicted YES

@Eliza created another one

https://twitter.com/CyclingUpToDat3/status/1704903599740817659

If LIDL-Trek are going after Nairo, maybe they didn't get Primoz. Updating toward Yes.

predicted NO
sold Ṁ4 of NO

@Eliza Why not both.gif

predicted YES

@Eliza Nairo >> Primoz

I think Primoz was just the backup plan ;)

predicted NO

Besides the resolution criteria in the description I updated the question title from 'ride' to 'race' to make it more clear that the question of the market is he will participate in a race for Jumbo-Visma

bought Ṁ55 of YES

Richard Plugges take: https://www.globalcyclingnetwork.com/racing/news/jumbo-visma-boss-why-would-i-consider-letting-primoz-roglic-go

predicted NO

Direct interview in English. I feel like the editorializing in the title is not quite indicative of the content but his smile will not go away.

<Prompt> It's worth staying in a super team like Jumbo-Visma?

<Roglic> *Huge grin*

<Prompt> They say you're going to INEOS, now they say you're going to Movistar.
<Roglic> Laugh

<Roglic> These are for me good things, as long as someone wants me then that means I'm good, huh? As fast as it's nothing going around then normally I'm not so good but like I said....

<Prompt> We shouldn't believe the rumors?

<Roglic> No, not really huh, thank you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMDNsg4kaOI

predicted NO

@Eliza So now both Kuss and Roglic may leave. Who’s next? Van Aert?

bought Ṁ250 of YES

@NicoDelon Yeah Van Aert should definitely leave. The guy doesn’t even get full Support at the Tour.

predicted NO

@Checktaschu What a dumpster fire.