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@egroj are you willing to resolve based on Primoz's definitive announcement that he's leaving, or in a few days when he actually announces new team? https://velo.outsideonline.com/road/primoz-roglic-confirms-he-will-leave-jumbo-visma/

@JCE I'll wait until the first race of 2024 that he participates in

While the situation with Jumbo-Visma seems to have developed toward leaving, it kind of strikes me that 6% is probably a little bit too low. I sold half my No shares.

Cycling Manifold is just a bunch of markets rising or falling 80% in 24 hours 😂

There are too many of these now to keep track of, I can't handle it. I made a multiple choice market:

https://www.globalcyclingnetwork.com/racing/news/primoz-roglic-on-the-transfer-market-with-ineos-grenadiers-and-lidl-trek-leading-the-chase

Primož Roglič on the transfer market with Ineos Grenadiers and Lidl-Trek leading the chase

Movistar and Bahrain Victorious also in the mix as Slovenian moves closer to an exit from Jumbo-Visma

The way I see it, if Jumbo merges with Soudal, either Roglic or Remco will leave, but probably not both?

@Eliza Agreed. I think Remco could make peace with Jonas and Sepp, but not Primoz. I think it makes it more likely that Primoz leaves, which still gives Jumbo Sepp, Remco, Jonas, and then Landa.

@JCE But that's only if they merge? I think the Vuelta didn't make him happy, I still think he's out.

@Iamczecksy Yea, only if they merge, and yes, agree, or at least have money on no.

How would you resolve if this happens and he rides for the combined team?

https://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/jumbo-visma-working-on-merger-with-soudal-quick-step/

@Eliza I would resolve as if the merged team is still the current Jumbo, so if he stays and races for the merged team, it resolves YES. I made the change in the description to consider that scenario. Thanks for the news!

Also, I created a Dashboard for the 2023-2024 transfer season:

https://manifold.markets/dashboard/road-cycling-transfers-20232024

Road Cycling Transfers 2023-2024

For markets related to the 2023-2024 transfer season.

Follow along and I will try to keep transfer markets on there.

@Eliza created another one

https://twitter.com/CyclingUpToDat3/status/1704903599740817659

If LIDL-Trek are going after Nairo, maybe they didn't get Primoz. Updating toward Yes.

@Eliza

@Eliza Why not both.gif

@Eliza Nairo >> Primoz

I think Primoz was just the backup plan ;)

Besides the resolution criteria in the description I updated the question title from 'ride' to 'race' to make it more clear that the question of the market is he will participate in a race for Jumbo-Visma

Richard Plugges take: https://www.globalcyclingnetwork.com/racing/news/jumbo-visma-boss-why-would-i-consider-letting-primoz-roglic-go

Jumbo-Visma boss: Why would I consider letting Primož Roglič go?

Richard Plugge firmly denies speculation over Slovenian's future

Direct interview in English. I feel like the editorializing in the title is not quite indicative of the content but his smile will not go away.

<Prompt> It's worth staying in a super team like Jumbo-Visma?

<Roglic> *Huge grin*

<Prompt> They say you're going to INEOS, now they say you're going to Movistar.
<Roglic> Laugh

<Roglic> These are for me good things, as long as someone wants me then that means I'm good, huh? As fast as it's nothing going around then normally I'm not so good but like I said....

<Prompt> We shouldn't believe the rumors?

<Roglic> No, not really huh, thank you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMDNsg4kaOI

Primoz Roglic Team Transfer Rumors 'Good Things' After Vuelta a España 2023 Ride

Primoz Roglic talks about the rumors of him switching teams as a "good thing" at the same time that he has won two stages and riding to a Jumbo-Visma 1-2-3 i...

@Eliza So now both Kuss and Roglic may leave. Who’s next? Van Aert?

@NicoDelon Yeah Van Aert should definitely leave. The guy doesn’t even get full Support at the Tour.

@Checktaschu What a dumpster fire.