Resolves YES if the intearnual variation for the Índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) is above 4% for December 2023 according to https://gee.bccr.fi.cr/indicadoreseconomicos/Cuadros/frmVerCatCuadro.aspx or any source by the Costa Rican Central Bank (bccr.fi.cr) if that link is not available.
For reference in 2022 Costa Rica experienced its highest inflation since 2008: 7.88%.
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Inflation ended up being negative
https://gee.bccr.fi.cr/indicadoreseconomicos/Cuadros/frmVerCatCuadro.aspx?idioma=1&CodCuadro=%202732
In recent years, Costa Rica's inflation trends have shown notable volatility. Most notably, the inflation rate saw a significant jump from 1.73% in 2021 to 8.27% in 2022. Historically, the data reveals patterns where, after a period of declining inflation, rates stabilize or show slight rebounds. This historical context provides a framework for anticipating future movements. Furthermore, monthly inflation data for the last year show an upward trend, with September marking an increase of 0.11%, contrasting the decrease in the previous month. It is also essential to consider the average inflation rate over a decade, which stands at 4.27%, suggesting that rates above 4% have been common.
Adding another layer to this analysis is the relationship between unemployment and inflation. A decline in unemployment often implies potential inflationary pressures due to rising wages and increased consumer spending. Given the notable drop in Costa Rica's unemployment rate, this dynamic further supports potential inflationary pressures for next year. Taking all of these factors into account, it seems statistically plausible that Costa Rica's inflation rate for 2023 could surpass the 4% mark. However, such forecasts carry inherent uncertainties, as multiple economic factors will influence the outcome.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CRI/costa-rica/inflation-rate-cpi