Resolves YES if a cyclist from the USA wins a stage at the 2023 Tour de France.
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50% seems way high given history (though I hope I'm wrong!)
I'd say this likelihood goes Kuss and Powless tied (Kuss has the edge but Powless will probably be a bit more free to chase a stage) > Jorgensen > Simmons. I don't know that Kuss gets given the opportunity unless Jonas is up by a lot or totally out. I also don't know if Powless can pull it off. Good season but also just not great competition really. Jorgensen has had a good season so far but he'll be working for Mas. Quinn Simmons seems like a wildcard.
@JakeEatonc5e2 true I forgot Jorgensen, he's been riding well, an the way Mas has been riding Movistar could start going for stages instead of GC by week 2.