Who will win stage 12 at the 2024 Tour de France?
resolved Jul 11
Biniam Girmay
Jasper Philipsen
Alexander Kristoff
Phil Bauhaus
Mark Cavendish
Dylan Groenewegen
Arnaud De Lie
Fernando Gaviria
Sam Bennett

In theory, a stage for sprinters

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Tomorrow's stage, another one for the sprinters:

bought Ṁ15 Biniam Girmay NO

Why were Bini and AdL so high? It's a straight run in and flat sprint. If anyone would like to buy one of them above 20%, please ping me, I'd love to put up some limit orders.

Bini proved you wrong, it doesn't matter if it is flat or uphill, he's the man 😃 AdL I was thinking maybe breakway is caught on the last climb while the peloton is going hard up and a lot of sprinters are left behind

No one has proved me wrong because I am always right.

I said 20% was too high, not that it was impossible. I estimated his chances at 10%. Bini is phenomenal in chaotic sprints, and the best male rider in the pro peloton was left behind, but the chance of this happening wasn't that high. It looked like an easy, boring sprint finish until Roglic decided to crash himself out and held MVDP up.

Last time that I bid Bini he was below 10%, 20% might be too high for anyone on a sprint stage, but once sprinters start winning they keep wining: Jasper last year, Cav in 21, Ewan in 19, Kittel in 17, Greipel in 15...

Don't blame Roglic for MvdP 😂 he didn't cause the crash... although it was his and his team's fault that he was involved, they should have been riding further up in the peloton.

But Bini hasn't been as dominant in the sprints, always pretty close, not multiple bike lengths ahead, etc. I think on a stage that suits him, he is the clear favorite, but on flat stages with proper lead-out trains, I am not convinced yet.

When Roglic is allowed to blame Fred Wright for crashing, then I'm allowed to blame Roglic for holding up MVDP.