On which stage will Ben O'Connor first lose the red jersey in the 2024 Vuelta a Espana?

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Ṁ32k

resolved Sep 6

100%99.0%

Stage 19 (uphill finish at Alto de Moncalvillo)

0.1%

Stage 13 (uphill finish at Puerto de Ancares)

0.1%

Stage 15 (uphill finish at Cuitu Negru)

0.1%

Stage 16 (uphill finish at Lagos de Covadonga)

0.3%

Stage 20 (Queen stage, uphill finish at Picón Blanco)

0.2%

Stage 21 (final stage, ITT)

0.1%

Never

0.1%Other

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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soldṀ52 YES

@egroj ???

sold Ṁ31 YES

@Lion he was dropped from the main group, and EF was pulling like crazy

@egroj Yeah, but that was 5 minutes ago...

again my lack of faith in O'Connor is just making me lose more mana

sold Ṁ81 NO

@egroj Feel you, I'm still over M$1k negative in this market

sold Ṁ4 YES

O'Connor is making me lose a lot of mana in this market

bought Ṁ500 NO

@egroj good market!

@egroj If he just keeps holding on for one more day until Roglic crashes out, he'll be golden!

bought Ṁ3 YES

@Eliza he would need Mas to crash with Roglic too, because by Saturday Mas should be ahead of O'Connor. It's actually not a less than 1% event, so I put some money on Never.

Will O'Connor hold podium:

I don't think O'Connor will be able to hold on to the red jersey after the finish climb at Lagos de Covadonga. However, Roglic was penalized 20 seconds today so he will have to work that much harder.

@Eliza magical things can happen on a rest day

reposted

....aaaaaaand O'Connor has deactivated his Twitter account in rage after admitting that his team was blocking the road and complaining that they received multiple sanctions for doing so. Is he going to blow up, or is his team going to rally from the perceived slight and manage to hold the jersey until the final day?

bought Ṁ200 NO

I think O'Connor is on the verge of collapse at this point. He's had one really amazing day and several where he had to give every bit of juice he had, and still came up short. Bora is pushing him and they will continue to do so until he breaks.

I made individual markets for the stage winner for each of the stages listed. You can see the profiles and final climbs there:

bought Ṁ75 YES

it is on us to manifest greatness!!

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

It seems like they intentionally gave him a solid buffer so they would NOT accidentally take it back immediately. His team will ride like crazy and use every bit of effort to keep him in front. But he may lose minutes by Stage 9 already. I'm buying some Other Yes and Never No.

bought Ṁ3 YES

It would be an extremely Roglic move to wait for the final TT to take the jersey back (and then get a mechanical/crash).

opened a Ṁ100 YES at 15% order

he would have to crash on the way to the podium, because ITT is the final stage 😂

pulls ahead as virtual leader with 2k to go, then drops his chain

I was like, "Oh, that won’t happen because Bora is on Shimano," until I reminded myself that they switched to SRAM this year 😂. 90% chance that he'll drop his chain sounds about right.

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