How many billions of output tokens will be used in the first AI proof/disproof of the Hodge Conjecture?
1
Ṁ1kṀ700Dec 31
2,120 billions of tokens
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
14%
Below 130
14%
130 - 249
14%
250 - 499
14%
500 - 999
14%
1,000 - 2,499
14%
2,500 - 4,999
10%
5,000 - 9,999
3%
10,000+
OpenAI reported that they used 130 billion output tokens to find their solution to Navier-Stokes.
When the first AI-generated proof/disproof of the Hodge Conjecture is published (by any company or user), how many billions of output tokens will be reported being used?
If multiple numbers are reported for different steps I will use my best judgement as to which one(s) to take and/or how to aggregate them. If a largely-human-led proof is published first, then I will probably resolve N/A unless AI was used for critical assistance and token numbers for that are published.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
The creator has blocked themselves from betting in this market.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027?
9% chance
Did OpenAI just solve hodge??
18% chance
OpenAI’s Claimed Proof of the Cycle Double Cover Conjecture Affirmed before 2027?
96% chance
In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
77% chance
Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030?
87% chance
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
99% chance
How will a blank-slate AI first prove the infinitude of primes?
Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01?
93% chance
Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?
48% chance
Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?
60% chance