Llama 5 outperforms GPT 4o on LM Arena?
5
100Ṁ1282027
47%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves when Lmsys releases the arena score of the largest model in the Llama 5 family.
Its score will be compared to the highest rated GPT 4o model on the leaderboard at the time Llama 5's score is published. This includes models such as chatgpt-4o-latest-20250326.
If their scores are within Lmarena's 95% CI, this market resolves to 'no.'
If Meta does not release a Llama 5, this will resolve as N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Open-source OpenAI model beats Grok 4 on LMArena?
11% chance
What will be GPT-5's score on LMSYS Chatbot Arena?
Will GPT-5 score higher than 1350 on the Lmsys Arena Leaderboard
95% chance
Will the GPT4+code-interpreter+search score > 1350 on Lmsys Arena Leaderboard?
49% chance
GPT5 gets 1500 elo on lmarena.ai?
50% chance
Will GPT-5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?
73% chance
Will GPT-5 perform better than o1 (not preview) at AIME 2024, Codeforces elo, GPQA, or the 2024 ioi?
91% chance
Will Llama 4 be the best LLM in the chatbot arena?
8% chance
Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) surpass 74% accuracy on the GPQA benchmark?
86% chance
Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) surpass 70% accuracy on the GPQA benchmark?
75% chance