MANIFOLD
Fate of chardet?
2
Ṁ125Ṁ247
2027
8%
License not LGPL-compatible, code not based on 6.x or earlier
21%
License LGPL-compatible, code not based on 6.x or earlier
10%
Code based on 6.x or earlier
56%
Moved to Python standard library and/or forked
4%
Abandoned or deleted (i.e. no newer release)

Resolves to which answer best describes the state of the chardet library as of January 1, 2027 at midnight UTC. For the purpose of this market, "code" refers to the latest (by release timestamp) release of chardet on PyPI, but excluding all malicious, duplicate, and/or non-functioning releases. Releases before the creation of this market (March 13, 2026) don't count. "Forked by contributors" is interpreted as an outcome where there are at least two competing libraries, published on PyPI and/or included in the Python standard library, whose source code is based on some version of chardet, and which also share at least one code contributor in common with chardet's code contributors up to the creation of this market.


This market inspired by the release of chardet 7.0.0 (contested in this GitHub issue) which was vibecoded from scratch and then released under MIT, even though all prior versions were released under LGPL.

EDIT: The following definitions shall also apply:

  • "LGPL-compatible" means either LGPLv2.1 or the licenses specified by section 3 of LGPLv2.1 (i.e. GNU GPL, at least version 2)

  • "Code based on 6.x or earlier" means that commits to that repo included in the latest release are based off a version of the repo from before the start of 7.0.0 development.

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bought Ṁ100 NO

Could you clarify:

  1. what does "LGPL-compatible" mean? Is it when chardet's license can be included in a LGPL project (common definition of LGPL-compatibility), or when it is legal to relicense a project from LGPL to chardet's license (more relevant to what happened here)?

  2. Does "Code based on 6.x or earlier" cover the current state? There are disagreements in the issues based on whether a LLM trained on earlier versions of chardet count. Also whether cleanroom design (write spec based on earlier version, write new version based on spec) counts as being based on the earlier version.

  3. Do forks created before this market but with a version newer than this market count for "Moved to Python standard library and/or forked"?

  4. If yes, does "which also share at least one code contributor in common with chardet's code contributors" include contributors to the fork who stopped contributing before the creation of this market?

@vee


I made some edits to the market description:

  1. Yes, common definition

  2. No. The code history has to start off from a version of 6.x or earlier.

  3. Yes (I decided to change the rules to make this so)

  4. No (to avoid spurious "contributors")

sold Ṁ47 NO

@duck_master You wrote this in the description:

"LGPL-compatible" means either LGPLv2.1 or the licenses specified by section 3 of LGPLv2.1 (i.e. GNU GPL, at least version 2)"

which does not match the common definition. MIT for example is LGPL-compatible in the sense that MIT projects can be included in LGPL projects, which is why Wikipedia lists it as GPL-compatible.

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