Context. Manifold is planning to add transaction fees to all trades on the platform. How much more or less mana will be bet the month after compared to the month before?
Resolves to the percentage <total mana bet the month-long period starting the day transaction fees are implemented>/<total mana bet the month-long period before transaction fees are implemented> based on the monthly "total mana bet" numbers at https://manifold.markets/stats.
Resolves N/A if the plans for adding fees are cancelled indefinitely.
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@ducat per the stated methodology you'd follow, 33,814,200 / 54,688,600 = 61.8% (isn't that golden!)
Edit: as we had seen, these numbers keep inching up after the date's passed. Now at 33,832,800 so 61.9%.
@ducat Thanks. BTW the stats page now shows a slightly higher number for total mana bet for the month up to April 16, of 54,873,100.
@deagol ooh, that makes sense. I posted a bug on the Discord. If limit orders are the reason, I think I'll use the April 16 number I read on April 17 and use the a May 16 number I read on May 17.
@ducat just read this from James that the conversion rate change will be delayed until May 15, so I sold off my "devaluation effect" position here (costing me a bunch in fees, oh well).
FWIW, I think this might hinge a bit on whether the prior month includes a period before the 99%+ betting was changed. I assume that by itself will substantially reduce the volume of mana bet (probably moreso than the fees, if I had to guess). (And loans are another tricky part to unpack, that will also reduce volume a ton)