Will Delta Airlines find our lost bags?
21
55
2.1K
resolved Jul 24
Resolved
YES

We flew from Copenhagen to Portland Oregon with a 2-hour connection in Amsterdam. Apparently 140-some bags didn't make it onto the plane in Amsterdam, including our two bags.

(We never check luggage, for this exact reason, but they told us the flight was very full and our bags were technically slightly too big so they insisted we check them.)

Delta are displaying profound organization incompetence so far. It took 5.5 hours on hold before talking to someone and getting a reference file created. We can now enter that reference file number at https://bit.ly/BaggageTracker to check the status. Unfortunately it just says the bags were tagged for CPH->AMS->PDX and a Mishandled file was created. At the airport yesterday when we arrived an agent said the bags would be on today's flight. Today an agent is saying they do not see the bags as being loaded on that flight. Anguished wail!

PS: So I can trade in this market as well without having too unfair an advantage, I hereby pledge to first add updates as comments below, wait at least a minute, and then proceed to trade based on that information.

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predicted YES
Bags delivered!
bought Ṁ460 of YES
What happens if they find/return one but not all bags?
predicted YES
@WilliamEhlhardt Great question. Resolving NO since the question said "bags" plural would've made some sense in that case. Or resolving to 50% could be the other extreme. So compromise at 25%? It's all hypothetical at this point but an interesting hypothetical!
They tried to deliver one of our bags to our house! And Delta's tracker thing says the other one is in the baggage service office at PDX!
I've mentioned this to more people and lots of people have horror stories but as far as I know, no one I know has ever had the airline lose their luggage permanently. Here's a news article about a person who had a similar situation earlier this month and got his bag after 6 days: https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/passenger-lost-luggage-london-north-carolina-b2128108.html?amp
So I'm inclined to bet this up a bit higher, but also every day that goes by with zero news presumably lowers the probability.
bought Ṁ66 of YES
A datapoint that might be worth trading on from Bee's brother who this happened to in Amsterdam years ago: "The whole luggage system was down and there were just bags laid out all over the floor." He eventually got his bag.
bought Ṁ50 of YES
The base rate is quite high, I think. Even if it takes them a while to actually find and return your luggage.
predicted YES
@SG That's reassuring to hear!
predicted YES
I've now also talked to a KLM agent since KLM operated the first leg of the trip. They have zero information. But the massive malfunction of the baggage system in Amsterdam (see above link) may be reassuring in that it explains away (to use the Bayesian term) the long delay. They have a backlog of thousands of bags to process but presumably (?) they'll eventually work through that. (Not that I have confirmation that our bags are in that backlog but it's what's most likely at this point.)
predicted YES
@dreev We got hours in 1-3 wks.
bought Ṁ500 of YES
Further discussion with a Delta agent: they do not see any scanning of the bags and so they could still be in Copenhagen for all they know. All they can tell me is that after 5 days I should start the claims process for getting reimbursed. :((