@draaglom I've sold all my positions on "Before Apr 2026" because I think it's ambiguous whether it should resolve YES or NO. There haven't been any Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, but Houthi did strike Israel in March, including missiles which were intercepted over the Red Sea. Wikipedia lists this as part of the Red Sea Crisis and the location as "Israel and Red Sea," but many sources including the one above consider the Israel attacks separate from an actual attack in the Red Sea.

@Dssc Thanks for the heads up. The original article was about a threat against shipping specifically, so I'll resolve in line with that intent - military actions directed elsewhere but intercepted above the red sea wouldn't count, the direction of the attack has to be a target in/at the red sea.

@draaglom Hmm, it's still ambiguous I think. It seems like they struck the coastal city of Eilat, which hosts both a Red Sea Naval Base and a Red Sea Port(Although the port has been shut down for nearly a year, so seems like an unlikely target). They also claimed to be striking "military sites," which would include the Naval Base. However, there are also plenty of other military sites within Eilat, so the target could also very easily not be the naval base, and it seems impossible to figure out what they were actually targeting in Eilat considering everything got intercepted before impact. You could wait for more information, but I'm not sure if it'll ever get confirmed what the Eilat strikes were actually targeting.

@Dssc thanks for the follow-up!

I'm still inclined that it doesn't count, in that the reporting does not reflect a "consensus" to this effect in my view:

• https://www.timesofisrael.com/yemens-iran-backed-houthis-threaten-to-join-war-our-fingers-are-on-the-trigger/

  • This says that the ballistic missile attack was (in the region of) Beersheba.

• https://www.timesofisrael.com/houthi-missile-attack-on-israel-stokes-fears-of-renewed-strikes-on-red-sea-shipping/

  • This talks about the drone being shot down at Eliat, but it makes no claim at all of if the drone was supposed to be attacking Eliat, or if it was merely entering Israel through Eliat (so as not to cross over Saudi Arabia) and as you say, we don't know which of several targets it was going for, assuming that it was going to Eliat.

  • The same considerations apply (moreso) to cruise missiles.

• https://maritime-executive.com/article/houthis-attack-on-israel-threatens-red-sea-ceasefire

  • The article is careful to clarify that "[..] the Houthis have not yet changed their posture regarding the transit of commercial shipping"

Over-all I don't think there's enough for a yes.

@draaglom Before Mar 2026 should resolve NO, there have been no documented actual Houthi attacks in the Red Sea between Jan 26th and March 1st despite more Houthi threats of action.

Seems right to me, on a search:

https://gcaptain.com/houthis-signal-renewed-red-sea-shipping-attacks-after-u-s-israeli-strikes-on-iran/#:~:text=As%20of%20Saturday%20evening%2C%20no%20confirmed%20new%20maritime%20strike%20had%20yet%20been%20independently%20verified%20in%20connection%20with%20the%20latest%20Houthi%20statements.%20However%2C%20naval%20and%20commercial%20operators%20across%20the%20region%20have%20elevated%20threat%20levels%20and%20activated%20contingency%20protocols.

As of Saturday evening [Feb 28th], no confirmed new maritime strike had yet been independently verified in connection with the latest Houthi statements. However, naval and commercial operators across the region have elevated threat levels and activated contingency protocols.