USAMO 2026 Award Predictions

Question

Here are my estimated scores for each problem

problem 1 - 1 (~100% chance)

problem 2 - 5 or 6 (most likely 6)

problem 3 - 0 (100% chance)

problem 4 - 7 (~100% chance)

problem 5 - 7 (~100% chance)

problem 6 - 6 or 7 (most likely 7)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Blue MOP, followed by Gold Medal and Silver Medal are most likely. See the market for live updates (14 traders, as of Apr 11, 2026).

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