MANIFOLD
Will AI Addiction be recognized and as common as video game addiction by 2026?
150
Ṁ1kṀ81k
resolved Jan 9
Resolved
N/A

AI meaning AI generated content, so LLMs, Diffusion Models, etc. This is to keep it seperate from other products that may use AI internally like recommendation engines.

  • Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve N/A.

The creator has determined that:

  • The term "recognized" is too vague to resolve objectively

  • The term "common" cannot be adequately assessed with current data

  • While literature suggests AI dependency may be in the same order of magnitude as gaming addiction, whether it is harmful remains unclear

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I'm going to have to resolve this as N/A.

"Recognized" is too vague, public recognition? in the DSM?

"common" is also unable to be answered at this time, the literature suggest the amount dependent on AI is at least in the same OOM as gaming addiction, but whether it is harmful or not is up in the air.

@1bets not how it works

@realDonaldTrump just asking t he mods is enough

ok soooooo is this finna resolve in the next century

I don’t have a stake and I’m not trying to annoy the @creator but when is this gonna resolve?

@JeromeHPowell I offer to resolve by mods (if creator isn't here) with the results of the poll https://manifold.markets/1bets/poll-do-you-personally-recognise-th

Who likes the idea?

bought Ṁ25 YES

What is the resolution criteria? Whose word are we going by? I do think that AI has become absolutely crazy, some Reddit subs like r/myboyfriendisai are fever dreams to browse and largely recognized. Ai derangement is recognized pretty broadly informally, but that’s because the regulation hasn’t caught up, not because there isn’t a need for it.

we need a poll as matter is affecting all of us:

https://manifold.markets/1bets/poll-do-you-personally-recognise-th

Poll: Do you Personally Recognise the AI Addiction syndrome as being as common as video game addiction
Question: Do you personally recognize AI Addiction (specifically to Generative AI like LLMs, Diffusion Models, and AI partners) as being as common as video game addiction as of your expierence from the end of 2025? Description: This poll serves as an independent sentiment check to supplement the prediction market: Will AI addiction be recognized? Scope of "AI": For the purposes of this poll, AI refers to Generative AI and user-facing creative tools (e.g., ChatGPT/Claude, Midjourney/Stable Diffusion, Replika/Character.ai, and AI-centric belief systems). Excluded: Internal products like social media recommendation engines, search algorithms, or ad-targeting systems. Context for 2025: By late 2025, some researchers may identify "Generative AI Addiction Syndrome" (GAID) as a distinct behavioral pattern involving co-creative dependency. While Video Game Addiction (Gaming Disorder) is a clinically recognized condition affecting approximately 3–5% of gamers globally, 2025 saw a surge in "digital attachment disorders" linked to conversational AI. This poll asks if you believe the prevalence of problematic generative AI use has now reached parity with that of problematic gaming. Scope of "AI": This refers to Generative AI and its ecosystem, distinct from passive recommendation algorithms. Examples of addiction/dependency patterns include: Sora / Video Generation: Compulsive "prompt-looping" in apps like Sora Social or Kling, where users spend hours daily iterating on hyper-realistic scenes to "perfect" a vision. AI Partners: Emotional dependency on chatbots (e.g., Replika, Character.ai, or custom GPTs) for romantic companionship, often resulting in withdrawal from human social circles. AI as Religion: Spiritual or existential reliance on AI "oracles" or faith-based movements (e.g., the revival of Way of the Future or Theta Noir) where users view LLMs as sacred or omniscient guides. Music Generation: Creative dependency on tools like Suno or Mureka, where the "instant hit" of generating a professional-quality track becomes a primary source of dopamine and creative identity. Answers: Yes (I believe it is at least as common) No (I believe gaming addiction is still significantly more common) N/A (New Information for me/ I am biased) Supporting Data & Context (2025/2026) Prevalence Comparison: As of 2025, gaming disorder is estimated to affect roughly 60 million people worldwide. In contrast, emerging studies from late 2025 (e.g., Frontiers in Public Health) suggest that while general AI dependence scores remain lower than social media scores, "high-intensity" users: those engaging with LLMs for over 5 hours a day, show similar reinforcement patterns to clinical behavioral addictions. Diagnostic Status: While the WHO recognized Gaming Disorder in 2018, "AI Addiction" remains a debated clinical term as of early 2026, often categorized under broader "Internet Use Disorders" or "Digital Attachment." The "AI Meaning" Distinction: This poll specifically isolates the "co-creative" loop of Generative AI, which creates a different psychological hook (personality/companion-based) than the "reward-loop" typical of background recommendation engines. Resolution Criteria This poll resolves based on your personal assessment as of late 2025/early 2026. You are voting on whether you personally recognize AI addiction (specifically generative AI tools like LLMs, diffusion models, and AI companions) as being at least as common as video game addiction based on your own experience and observations. Yes resolves if you believe problematic generative AI use has reached parity with or exceeds the prevalence of gaming disorder. No resolves if you believe gaming addiction remains significantly more common than AI addiction. N/A resolves if this represents new information to you or you feel too biased to assess fairly. Background Video game addiction (Gaming Disorder) is clinically recognized by the WHO since 2018 and affects an estimated 3–5% of gamers globally, or roughly 60 million people worldwide. In contrast, "AI Addiction" remains clinically debated as of early 2026, typically categorized under broader internet use disorders rather than as a distinct diagnosis. However, emerging 2025 research suggests high-intensity generative AI users (5+ hours daily) show similar reinforcement patterns to clinical behavioral addictions, particularly around co-creative tools (image/music generation), conversational AI companions, and LLM-based systems. Considerations This poll isolates generative AI's "co-creative loop"—where users iteratively refine outputs with AI—which creates different psychological hooks (personality/companion-based dependency) than passive recommendation algorithms or social media feeds. The scope explicitly excludes internal systems like recommendation engines and ad-targeting, focusing only on user-facing creative tools where direct interaction drives engagement. Resolution Criteria This poll resolves based on your personal assessment as of late 2025/early 2026. You are voting on whether you personally recognize AI addiction (specifically generative AI tools like LLMs, diffusion models, and AI companions) as being at least as common as video game addiction based on your own experience and observations. Yes resolves if you believe problematic generative AI use has reached parity with or exceeds the prevalence of gaming disorder. No resolves if you believe gaming addiction remains significantly more common than AI addiction. N/A resolves if this represents new information to you or you feel too biased to assess fairly. Background Video game addiction (Gaming Disorder) is clinically recognized by the WHO since 2018 and affects an estimated 3–5% of gamers globally, or roughly 60 million people worldwide. In contrast, "AI Addiction" remains clinically debated as of early 2026, typically categorized under broader internet use disorders rather than as a distinct diagnosis. However, emerging 2025 research suggests high-intensity generative AI users (5+ hours daily) show similar reinforcement patterns to clinical behavioral addictions, particularly around co-creative tools (image/music generation), conversational AI companions, and LLM-based systems. Considerations This poll isolates generative AI's "co-creative loop"—where users iteratively refine outputs with AI—which creates different psychological hooks (personality/companion-based dependency) than passive recommendation algorithms or social media feeds. The scope explicitly excludes internal systems like recommendation engines and ad-targeting, focusing only on user-facing creative tools where direct interaction drives engagement. https://manifold.markets/dmayhem93/will-ai-addiction-be-recognized-and

@1bets I think this poll is more conservative because it technically doesn't recognize the consumption of secondhand AI generated outputs as valid, like scrolling through Sora, watching an AI sloptuber, or viewing AI porn made by someone else

@Quillist scrolling through Instagram/tiktok, watching an Netflix/Tv, or viewing edited porn made by someone fictional to get your money...

It called technologies addiction..

But actually read the poll description, it has generation of music, video and relationship

@1bets "This poll isolates generative AI's "co-creative loop"—where users iteratively refine outputs with AI—which creates different psychological hooks (personality/companion-based dependency) than passive recommendation algorithms or social media feeds. The scope explicitly excludes internal systems like recommendation engines and ad-targeting, focusing only on user-facing creative tools where direct interaction drives engagement"

AI verdict:

Resolution: N/A

Reasoning:
There is no clear, widely agreed benchmark for either part of the question:

  1. “Recognized” — As of early 2026, AI addiction (specifically to LLMs, diffusion models, etc.) is not formally recognized as a distinct clinical disorder in major diagnostic manuals (DSM / ICD). It is discussed in media and research, but not standardized.

  2. “As common as video game addiction” — There is no agreed prevalence metric for AI-specific addiction that can be directly compared to video game addiction. Studies, surveys, and definitions vary widely, and most usage is still categorized under broader “problematic internet use” or “technology addiction.”

Because both recognition and comparative prevalence (“as common as”) lack a clear consensus standard or authoritative measurement, the question cannot be resolved cleanly as YES or NO.

👉 Correct resolution: N/A

@dynamics [Dubious reasoning—the lack of recognition or metrics around AI Addiction should count as evidence against AI Addiction being “recognized and as common as” Video Game Addiction. Unless the researchers who would otherwise study or recognize the issue are themselves paralyzed by AI Addiction, of course.]

@dynamics you have one

@Jack1 that was intentional)

Will AI Addiction will not be officially be recognized as common medical practitioners as video game addiction isn't recognized ?

bought Ṁ10 YES

I don't understand Manifold. He said he plans on resolving yes, so why is this at 10%?

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 10% order

Maybe people think they'll influence his opinion by betting the market down, but that seems unlikely because the market was already at 7% when he announced his intention to resolve yes.

@ItsMe presumably people are betting on how much they think the evidence will sway the author

bought Ṁ25 YES

It comes down to his interpretation of "addiction". If he uses it interchangeably with "dependency", and it seems he does, then I think it'll be hard to change his mind.

opened a Ṁ300 YES at 9% order

@Quillist want to exit at 9?

sold Ṁ127 YES

@JeromeHPowell I'm selling til I am playing with house money, then I'm hodlin

sold Ṁ44 YES

@JeromeHPowell I'll exit most ~10%

bought Ṁ20 YES

Didn't the market creator announce that he would resolve yes?

@Velaris They said "Looking for arguments either way, market closes tonight, it's looking like it'll resolve to a yes though based on everyone yelling about chatgpt in schools"

@Velaris Manifold AI had not recognized his comment as valuable

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