Will Kamala Harris win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College?
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NO

Resolves YES if Harris wins the popular vote in the upcoming US Presidential election, but loses the EC. Resolves NO in all other cases including her dropping out etc Resolution source is AP

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D candidates have won the popular vote in the last few elections, and Harris is ahead in the popular vote now. So this should be effectively a question of whether she will win the electoral vote, which should be in the 40-60 range of likelihood.

@CraigDemel Not quite. Harris is a favorite to win the popular vote, but not a shoo-in as you claim. She's ahead by 2.8 points on 538's average, and the national polling average has been off by an average of 2 points in Democrats' favor in the last 3 presidential cycles, D+3 in the Trump era, and 2.3 points in some direction historically

If the race tightens by one point, and the polls have underestimated Trump again by like ~2 points, she'll lose the popular vote too. Which is why e.g Nate Silver currently only has her as a ~63% favorite to win the popular vote. Then the rest of the math is straightforward

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