Resolves YES if Harris wins the popular vote in the upcoming US Presidential election, but loses the EC. Resolves NO in all other cases including her dropping out etc Resolution source is AP
@CraigDemel Not quite. Harris is a favorite to win the popular vote, but not a shoo-in as you claim. She's ahead by 2.8 points on 538's average, and the national polling average has been off by an average of 2 points in Democrats' favor in the last 3 presidential cycles, D+3 in the Trump era, and 2.3 points in some direction historically
If the race tightens by one point, and the polls have underestimated Trump again by like ~2 points, she'll lose the popular vote too. Which is why e.g Nate Silver currently only has her as a ~63% favorite to win the popular vote. Then the rest of the math is straightforward