Manifold pedants are fucking insufferable

@dlin007 so is your pretentious attitude

@jks who are you?

Arb

These people are so weird and not thinking. Need help in the head I think so!

Latest odds in NC per Nate Silver

reposting for myself to keep an eye on this market

NC seems like effectively the only candidate state, with some probability of Florida, and much smaller probabilities of others -- 55% seems rather high to me?

Nate Silver's model is giving close to 50% right now and it has been trending upwards. I guess people are predicting it to continue moving that way and thus NC might become tossup.

This seems right, but based on polling, we don't know much about either NC or FL. They have similar likelihood to flip (estimated as 37% NC, 29% FL). See my comment below for more details and source code for a polls-based model. However, from non-polling priors it might be reasonable to lean more towards NC.

this market was prompted by Nate Silver's scenario modelling and it's curious that after 30 bets we've landed at almost the exact same odds

Although for me, this is effectively just a 'Will Harris win NC' market which I would put at <35%

We can also calculate this with my open source model and get a similar number in a transparent way. Note this model only simulates the top 8 swing states.

(see the daily/flip_state.py script for how these numbers were generated or if you want to edit)

So we estimate a ~47% Harris flips a state. However, under this model both NC and FL have similar likelihood of being the narrowest margin flipped state. They often flip together.

It is surprisingly almost guaranteed that one of the parties flips a state (we estimate 99.37%, which is in line with Silver's ~1.4% chance of exact same map)

Right now there isn't much polling of Florida (we estimated the equivalent of 1.6 top-quality polls), and it has moved a lot recently. So despite Harris being several points behind, there's enough uncertainty that the Dactile model gives Harris a 28.6% of winning FL. This is slightly higher (more uncertain) than Silver's 23.1%. Based other priors outside of polling, it might be reasonable to guess a lower number though.

@dlin007 I'm confused at the description. Would flipping Maine's 2nd district count for a YES?

or for Nebraska's for 1st and 3rd districts

Yeah, it isn't very clear but the intent of the market is to only resolve YES if Harris wins the state-wide popular vote in a state that Trump won state-wide. So quirks like flipping ME-2 don't count because Biden did win the Maine popular vote. Same reasoning applies to Nebraska - only resolves YES if Harris wins the state-wide popular vote.