Predict how I will grade Joe Biden's performance in the first 2024 presidential debate on June 27.
The grade will be on a scale from 1 to 10, with 1 being the worst and 10 being the best.
Decimal grades (6.5, 7.5) will be used for more precise scoring.
I will assign the grade based on my subjective impression tempered by my prediction of public/pundit opinion (i.e if I personally think the debate performance was bad but think other people might be moved positively by it, or it helped Biden's cause overall, I will grade it higher).
I will avoid all social media and punditry before and during the debate, and watch the debate alone after. edit: i will also not look at this market on the day of the debate
I will probably have a very basic scoring rubric to guide me
I voted for Biden in 2020 in my first election ever and consider myself a committed Democrat but I am despondent about Biden's chances and think he's doomed mostly because of his age. I also have very low expectations of Biden for the debate for the same reasons.
The market will resolve as N/A if the debate does not occur or if Biden does not participate.
I will resolve the market otherwise within 24 hours of the end of the debate
I will not bet on this market
happy to answer any other clarification questions in the comments
1,000
3.00so...yeah. that was fucking depressing. Biden walked onto the debate stage feebly and muttered "happy to be here" and my heart sank. Then it got progressively more depressing. I quit watching after ~35 mins because I couldn't take anymore of it. Short of collapsing on stage, struggling to think how he could have done worse. Jimmy Carter would have been an improvement.
very hard to recall tbh but I re-watched the first debate (the "will you shut up man" one) highlights and Biden somehow looks dramatically less old and is much more coherent. I remember liking the debate performance as chaotic as it was. If i had to guess it would have been something like an 8.5. For a more recent baseline, I was apprehensive and had low expectations of Biden for SOTU as well, but ended up liking it and would have graded it a 9.