Binary Induction Game v1
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Manifolds Markets was doing some market stuffs like a well-behaved prediction market, but suddenly there is a truck that appears out of nowhere at high speed.
Less than two second latter Manifold feel some deep discontinuity inside itself, and the sense that connect it to the meta-physical nature of its universe lose focus, blurs, and regain focus on a completely different set of meta rules :
- At the beginning of each step, there will be two markets, one for "0", and one for "1", about whether they will be up "↑" or down "↓".
- At the end of each step, the market nearer than 50% of the two, will be selected, and the other one will resolve N/A.
- The selected market will resolve ↑ or ↓, following an unknown [to the players] deterministic rule.
- Then the history of the universe will be updated, and the next step begin.
(Did you except heroic fantasy and magics ? Manifold is a market, not a person)
Parallel to that, if the correct rule is at more than 90% in this multiple-choice markets, for the duration of a step, then this answer is selected, and the game end.
A step end when :
- There is more than 2 days since the last step.
- There is more than 10 participants in both the "0" and "1" markets.
- I see it, and create the markets for the next step.
Will you help Manifold to better understand its new world ?