My wife works as a Technical Program Officer at USAID’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance. She is an independent contractor contracted directly with the government.
Around 900 of her colleagues, mostly hired through large contracting organizations, have been furloughed or fired, with no clarity whether they’ll be able to return. It appears as though USAID is being illegally attempted to be folded into the State Department:
This market will resolve YES if she experiences a loss of pay from the U.S. Government prior to April.
Examples of scenarios that would cause this market to resolve YES:
She is fired.
She is furloughed or placed on administrative leave without pay and that pay from her absence is not recouped prior to April.
She is provided a new contract from a government entity that pays her less than her current contract with USAID.
Any other scenario, such as a government shutdown, that results in a missed paycheck that is not recouped prior to April.
Examples of scenarios that would not cause this market to resolve YES:
She is placed on administrative leave with pay/with no interruption of pay.
She receives a new contract with a different government entity like the State Department for equal or increased pay without interruption or recovery of comparable pay that “makes her whole” by April.
Examples of scenarios that would immediately cause this market to resolve NO:
She voluntarily resigns.
I have a different market about whether she’ll lose her job entirely:
1,000
3.00Thousands of personal services contractors and civil servants lost access to email and USAID systems overnight.
Speaking to the press in El Salvador Monday, Rubio was asked about the arguments that USAID’s work is vital to national security and promoting US interests.
“There are things that USAID, that we do through USAID, that we should continue to do, and we will continue to do,” he said.
“This is not about ending the programs that USAID does, per se,” he said. “There are things that it does that are good and there are things that it does that we have strong questions about.”