1,000
3.00@dlin007 sounds like you should bet. also how did Lamars stats look like last year compared to Allen? Also who has a higher EPA/play this year? And which quarterback has a top 2-3 running back next to him?
@StopPunting not sure many voters (surely not even half) are deep enough into the stats world to vote based on EPA/play. Note how little of this type of advanced analytics talk ESPN, NBC, etc. get into.
But even those who do get into it will know that EPA/play will shy from putting too much stock into EPA/play for individuals, and rather teams. PFF guys, and others will talk about how they prefer not looking at EPA/play for individuals, even though QB's are such large parts of offenses.
Regardless, if you think people do look at EPA/player, then why would you think they are looking at the running back so heavily? Those advanced so deep in football analytics will understand runningback value is not as high as the general public believes it is, even with tempered beliefs from the past 2 years.
You're at odds with your own assessments. And this isn't to say I think Josh Allen isn't the favorite still. But I don't think your rationale is right in this case.
@No_uh oh I agree, and I think Lamar actually largely has the best advanced + normal stats.
TBF I'm just a Bills fan that thinks Josh was clearly the MVP by advanced metrics last year and deserved it (but didn't have the wins narrative), and Lamar might get it this year if my wanted rationale was used, but that rationale wasn't used last year (where Lamar was like 5th in everything and just had the #1 seed) and so shouldn't be used this year where wins/seeding matter, so it would be weird for voters to shift their rationale.
I think also since the playoffs can be random hell where stupid narratives are created (Lamar has had his worst games there, so Ravens fans know this well), MVP pretty much stands as the 2nd most "stands the test of time" stat, so it seems absurd for the last 6 years for Lamar to have 3, Mahomes to have 2, and Allen to have 0. Again, this is somewhat effectively calling for a make up call, but Allen also has his arguments for value (Derrick Henry, 9 pro-bowlers vs 2), EPA/play, less actually time to play football since the team has front-ran more games than the Ravens.
Burrow would also have his arguments in an idea world IMO if they had made the playoffs.