@dglid resolves ‘NO’ 🙂

the idea of sleeping with wearables sounds very uncomfortable, it would be interesting to see how they will innovate in this feature

@trisqwit I have gotten quite used to sleeping with both an engagement ring and with a thick (non-smart) watch at different points in my life. I would not expect that to be an issue personally.

@RobertCousineau I sleep with a watch on. Totally normal imho.

Apple Ring — everything we know so far about the rumored smart ring

https://www.macrumors.com/2024/02/25/apple-has-explored-smart-ring-and-glasses/

From a non-prediction perspective, why on earth would they release a ring? Would definitely invite litigation. Would likely cannabalize some Apple Watch users who primarily only use for fitness. Doesn't invite much more ecosystem lock-in than a watch. Isn't revolutionary (AirPods that do health <- some of the tech for ear-based sensing is out there); and certainly doesn't fit with the next wave (that much) i.e. VR / gen AI.

@JacobBaxter the #1 usecase of the apple watch is being a fitness tracker and most features can be contained in a ring. Here are some reasons why Apple might do it:

1) rings are cooler than watches (subjective)

2) rings are more discreet

3) rings are smaller

4) rings are cheaper to produce (guess)

5) margins are higher on rings (guess)

6) rings can be worn with cool watches

@JacobBaxter My best guess would be that there are people who would like the health tracking but do not want a watch. Apple does have this image of privacy and health, so it fits into that? There are other smart rings out there, but they send all your data to the cloud vs apples on device processing.

I also wonder if it is some sort of brand-identity as style thing too? Like how when you see someone wearing the very unique looking AirPods, you know they are a part of the Apple ecosystem. But you don’t listen to music all the time. However a ring would be on display 24/7 broadcasting “Apple” to the world. Thats great free marketing!

My best guess though is that they are just doing R&D on it and that if smart rings ever take off (Samsung is releasing one now) they’ll have something they can more quickly get to market to not be left behind.

I like both of these responses, thank y'all!

@JacobBaxter Can you let me know an end date for this answer? ie “it won’t happen by 2030” or similar? Otherwise this answer will never resolve since I already specified that the end date would be pushed out to match a launch date.

@dglid by January 1, 2025

@JacobBaxter How’s this? “Happen” = release? Effectively the opposite of the “It will be available for purchase in 2024” option?

@dglid I like that. Sorry for not thinking through all of the edge cases; I'm definitely not a resolution guru. I trust your judgment!

@dglid I've also since seen that there are some related single-issue markets. Not sure if you want to do anything with it based on that

https://manifold.markets/Predict/will-apple-announce-a-smart-ring-be

@JacobBaxter Nah that’s fine. Thanks for checking!

would a digital button count?

@Soli I interpret this answer as a physical button. @Nikos Would you like to confirm? I can update the answer to “it will have a physical button on it” if so.

@dglid I was originally thinking physical button. Which I agree is quite unlikely :P

@Nikos Thanks! Answer updated.

is silver and black a range of colors?

@Soli I think two colours should be enough for yes

@Odoacre Agreed. Silver and black would resolve as YES. @Soli

What happens if the ring is never released? would the options resolve N/A or No?

@Soli I’m willing to extend more or less indefinitely, but would likely make the call by 2030 to return bets (N/A) for answers reliant on a release. I’ll comment here with guidance for traders if we reach that point.

I’ve also requested clarification on the “it won’t happen” answer: https://manifold.markets/dglid/what-will-be-true-about-apples-smar-528382f89632#g2q5c8exg8s

@dglid thank you for clarifying - i guess the it won’t happen option needs an end date (e.g. before 2025) so that it can resolve as No at some point

@Soli Yep updated to “it won’t be available for purchase before 2025” per discussion in other comment with answer author ✅