I plan on applying to Erik Torenberg's Chief of Staff job opening shortly. (Update: I've applied.) The application process is as follows:
"please send erik@turpentine.co your LinkedIn or resume, and a short blurb on why you’d be a great fit for the role."
Will I get an interview?
Resolves NO if I receive a rejection letter or no response by market close (end of Q1 - I can't imagine they wouldn't at least conduct first-round interviews by then - probably much sooner honestly). Also resolves NO if for some reason I don't end up applying (<5% chance).
I'll open this question at 10% likelihood of getting an interview on the general principle of 1 interview per every 10 job applications submitted. As I argue below, my actual confidence in at least getting an interview is much higher, but I commit to not betting on my own question beyond setting the initial probability.
I will post updates in the comments prior to resolving this question and leave any potential riches to the quickest traders to act on them. I have heavily subsidized this market to incentivize getting insights into my chances here and potentially get feedback to improve my candidacy.
My LinkedIn for reference: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidglidden/
Reasons to bet YES:
Skills fit:
I strongly believe I'm a great fit for this role, a "no-brainer" + "hell-yes" match:
I've excelled at Chief of Staff roles previously for executives who are spread thin and constantly challenged by shiny objects. It's the type of role that's easy for me but seemingly hard for others.
My background is in tech product management and operations, providing me key skills mentioned in the job description like keeping trains running on time, altitude shifting, and leading projects.
I'm frequently described by colleagues with terms mentioned in the job description such as being organized, detailed-oriented, and thorough (i.e. "leaving no stone left unturned").
I'm 10+ years into my career - I don't need to be micromanaged and have experience (and strong positive feedback) hiring and managing people, something I'd be doing in this role.
Cultural fit:
I'm a hard worker earning my way every day and highly respected by my colleagues, with strong references everywhere I've worked.
Just for this job application alone, I've spent the last few days ravenously listening to hours of podcasts with Erik and used ChatGPT to help me quickly get up to speed with his voluminous written content online.
My colleagues often share amazement at how I'm everywhere at once, extremely responsive in Slack or similar forums, managing communication and connecting dots between channels.
I have a personal tendency to defer the center of attention to others (aligned with being a low-ego team player). This has led me to find tremendous personal value supercharging others. My favorite role has been a Chief of Staff role where I was our division president's trusted strategic thought partner and accountability partner, pushing him to be a better operator for our team, often advising him to delegate those tasks that required strong operations skills to me so he could focus his time on the unique things that only he could do.
This role would manage a team of other Chief-of-Staff-like roles (CoS focused on networks, CoS for research, a career CoS). This is extremely appealing to me - it seems exactly like the type of team I'd want to work most closely with, i.e. a bunch of other operators who are chiefs of staff in their own arenas. I also have no doubt given Erik's network and reputation that it would be a team composed exclusively of top talent.
For the last 5 years, I've embodied my current company's culture of Extreme Ownership and Radical Candor, which from what I can tell overlaps with Erik's way of doing business: being proactive and direct (in a Non-Violent Communication type of way).
I build in public - transparency is the theme of my best-performing content selected for data science publications, such as how I used Reddit's ranking algorithm to win my office NFL pool, or my historically well-performing March Madness picks. It's also why I hyperlink so much of this text - I like to show my thought process and my sources.
I love Erik's commentary on a model whereby a Chief of Staff could be a true partner and producer for a creator and take a percentage of all of the creator's revenue in exchange for taking all the stuff they don't like doing (or aren't good at) off their plate. Erik may have only been thinking about this type of partnership in the context of his content businesses, but I'd certainly entertain a similar model with Erik should there be mutual interest there.
Continued in comments (I seem to have met Manifold's limit for description length! Scroll or resort to see oldest comments or go to link here)👇
Feedback welcomed if you think there's anything else I could do to bolster my candidacy.
If I do get invited to interview, I'll create a new market for my chances at receiving an offer.
1,000
3.00I got invited to the next round of the process which isn’t technically an interview but an invitation to submit a take-home assignment that includes a video recording, which I’ll consider as an interview for resolving this market as YES. I should have titled this market something like “Will I get invited to the first round of the application process?” rather than specify the medium but I feel comfortable resolving YES as to the spirit of the market and given that it includes an interview-like component.
Thanks for your support: come bet on whether I make it to the next round!
Reason to bet YES: I've exchanged emails with Nancy (presumed hiring manager) thanks to an intro by @case. She asked me to share a little more about my background. I responded. Stay tuned for what comes next...
Update: both of my mutual LinkedIn connections with Erik have reported back saying they don't actually know him, so no network advantage there.
However, my former boss for whom I was Chief of Staff has a mutual connection who is "happy to forward [David's] profile, I don't know [Erik] super well. He might not remember me." We'll see if that helps at all for me get noticed.
Reason to bet YES: @case bet YES, jumping the odds from 25->50%. Investigation into his profile shows that he’s an engineer at Mochary Method, which as I mention in my reasons to bet YES is the former employer of Nancy Xu, Erik’s current Chief of Staff for his company Turpentine and likely to be screening or leading the hiring process for the role I’m applying for. That team is small (<20 per LI) and her time there completely overlaps with him, so I suspect they’ve worked together fairly closely.
Potential conclusions:
Case has determined that I might be a good fit based on his familiarity with at least some of the people who would be considering me for hire,
He has mentioned my candidacy to those people, increasing my odds of getting noticed, or otherwise has insider info, or
He is simply showing his support, which may say nothing about my odds but I appreciate nonetheless - thanks @case !
Reason to bet NO: I’m realizing I botched my reference to ISAs (Income Share Agreements) in my application, conflating the concept with a shared revenue partnership as discussed here: https://youtu.be/iRpetYZhYmY?si=Se5OZ3JeqLneRajN&t=1620
ISAs are a form of investment, whereas the partnership model is more akin to a commission-based arrangement. Both have aligned incentives and sharing of funds earned, but ISAs are intended as an alternative to debt.
My misuse of this concept that Erik has spent a lot of time thinking about might be a significant-enough error to disqualify me from consideration.
Application sent. ✅ Accompanying blurb:
--
Hi Erik/Nancy,
My LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidglidden/
As an early adopter and avid supporter of Manifold (Byrne’s favorite prediction market startup 📈), I’ve decided to approach my application for this Chief of Staff role by creating this prediction market:
Will I get an interview for tech entrepreneur Erik Torenberg's Chief of Staff job? 👀
In the market description and comments, I provide guidance to traders as to why they should bet YES (that I’ll get an interview) or NO (that I won’t get an interview). To summarize the lengthy detail I went into there, here’s why I think I’m a “no-brainer” + “hell-yes” match 🤝 for the Chief of Staff role:
Skills fit: I have experience as a trusted thought partner and executor for brilliant executives who are spread thin - simplifying, not complicating, their worlds. I’m very interested in a job where I’m responsible for achieving Erik’s goals for him (and open to an ISA model if he is). My product management and operations background, backed by strong references, play to strengths required of this role such as keeping trains running on time, altitude shifting, and leading projects. 🦸 I'm 10+ years into my career - I don't need to be micromanaged and have experience (and strong positive feedback) hiring and managing people. 👴
Culture fit: I earn my way every day, build in public, and live by the values of Extreme Ownership and Radical Candor. I’ve worked in startups and startup-like teams my entire career - my first asymmetric bet was joining a co-founder matchmaking startup that seems like Erik may be taking a stab at himself! 💑
Serendipitous connections: Epistemic status = skeptical, but too eerie not to mention: Long familiarity with Product Hunt and Mochary Method. Shared connection with startup founder who guided me on launching my first mobile app back in 2012. Basketball fan and mentor to a young content creator currently making $200k+/month as an NBA player props influencer. (Loose) personal ties to Israel, Colombia, and Miami. 🌴
I opened my prediction market at a 10% probability that I’d get an interview for this Chief of Staff role; as of this writing, it’s up to 26%. Let’s make it 100%! 😉
Best,
David
Reasons to bet YES (continued):
Serendipitous connections:
The more I learn about Erik, the more I find overlap between him/this role and my lived experience. I won't deny that some of these are a stretch, but fwiw:
Erik's Chief of Staff for his company Turpentine is Nancy Xu, previously COO at the Mochary Method. A few years ago when I stepped into my first Chief of Staff role and was doing my own off-hours research on how to best serve in that new role, I stumbled upon the Mochary Method perspective on the now-named Exec Ops role. I subsequently devoured all of Matt's content, including watching all of the videos that former CoS Regina narrated around Chief of Staff and operations activities. I suspect Nancy is heading up this search and likely screening applicants to surface to Erik, which I hope bodes well for my chances of getting an interview.
continued:
I have loose 2nd-level LinkedIn connections with Erik. No idea if he actually knows my connections personally, and I'm sure most other applicants have many other connections, but given our seemingly different circles, I was surprised I had any at all (though maybe I shouldn't be given his focus on networking).
Jonathan Wegener created an app for the NYC subway that I tried to recreate for the DC metro as my first entrepreneurial endeavor out of college. I cold-emailed him a cringey pitch video and he was kind enough to spend some time chatting with me.
Neha Shah is a college friend and colleague - we were RAs in the same dorm.
I was a relatively early adopter to ProductHunt, certainly not at the level of Erik being employee 1, but user 4061 ain't too shabby.
Though Erik seems to be a much bigger basketball fan than I am, I do have a passion for college basketball, having built a tool to simulate March Madness among other college basketball topics. On the NBA front, I mentor a young content creator who is currently making hundreds of thousands a month as an NBA player props influencer.
My first job in tech was for a startup called CoFoundersLab, which aimed to solve a problem that Erik struggled with himself - finding a cofounder. As a result, I have experience in the space of making connections and networking for the purposes of innovating new businesses.
Erik and I both have connections to Israel, Colombia, and Miami, which likely doesn't mean much, but fwiw:
I have extended family ties to Israel.
In my role as VP of Operations I've worked to merge our technology consulting team with a sibling team in Colombia, visiting Bogota a few times.
I'm a Miami Dolphins fan from early childhood. 😭
Creative candidacy:
I learned about this job via the Manifold Discord, where Manifold was mentioned in Erik's latest Riff pod with @ByrneHobart. This Manifold question and its description will be a central focus of my application to this role, which I think could be a creative way to pique Erik/Nancy's attention for a chat.
Reasons to bet NO:
Volume of applicants:
Erik is the king of networks and has a strong presence in San Francisco and online. Base rates would suggest I have an uphill battle just to get noticed.
Quality of fellow applicants:
Related, I'm sure this role is receiving a large concentration of highly-qualified applicants. For example, Tara Gilboa was mentioned twice in the comments on this job posting and seems extremely qualified.
VC/recent startup experience:
Unlike someone like Tara, I don't have any experience in the venture capital space and my "true" startup experience is somewhat dated (though hyper-relevant I think). While I have a strong tech background generally and am very good at quickly absorbing new information and material, Erik may want someone already embedded in that world. Hopefully he sees the value of a partner with an outside perspective that can challenge his thinking with fresh eyes.
Location:
The job description lists a preference for someone in San Francisco. I am rooted in Washington, DC. While I see this as an advantage to provide a larger coverage of time zones, I could see this as a tie breaker against my application.
Timing:
According to the job description Google Doc details, this job was composed and/or posted on January 3rd. I'm not learning about it until over a week later. They strike me as a team to move fast, so I imagine there are already many candidates ahead of me "in line" and they might easily find a suitable match prior to considering my application.
The existence of this prediction market:
The centrality/use of this question on Manifold in my application could be perceived as weird.
By offering guidance to Manifold traders as to why they should bet against me, I could be shooting myself in the foot by giving Erik and team ammo to second-guess whether I'm the right person for the job. I'd frame this as simply building in public. 😃
Other considerations (unknown unknowns):
I may have blind spots. Help me identify them in the comments!
Another "NO" reason I meant to include:
I'm an unknown quantity to him:
"Erik writes: "I [...] love working with people I’ve worked with before." Erik doesn't know me, so it seems like the odds are against me, though he does finish that sentence with "but I’m known to also hire people who’ve written legendary cold emails and were “no-brainer” great hires." We'll see if my application, effectively a cold email, is considered "legendary"!