I plan on applying to Erik Torenberg's Chief of Staff job opening shortly. (Update: I've applied.) The application process is as follows:

"please send erik@turpentine.co your LinkedIn or resume, and a short blurb on why you’d be a great fit for the role."

Will I get an interview?

Resolves NO if I receive a rejection letter or no response by market close (end of Q1 - I can't imagine they wouldn't at least conduct first-round interviews by then - probably much sooner honestly). Also resolves NO if for some reason I don't end up applying (<5% chance).

I'll open this question at 10% likelihood of getting an interview on the general principle of 1 interview per every 10 job applications submitted. As I argue below, my actual confidence in at least getting an interview is much higher, but I commit to not betting on my own question beyond setting the initial probability.

I will post updates in the comments prior to resolving this question and leave any potential riches to the quickest traders to act on them. I have heavily subsidized this market to incentivize getting insights into my chances here and potentially get feedback to improve my candidacy.

My LinkedIn for reference: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidglidden/

Reasons to bet YES:

• Skills fit:

  • I strongly believe I'm a great fit for this role, a "no-brainer" + "hell-yes" match:

  • I've excelled at Chief of Staff roles previously for executives who are spread thin and constantly challenged by shiny objects. It's the type of role that's easy for me but seemingly hard for others.

  • My background is in tech product management and operations, providing me key skills mentioned in the job description like keeping trains running on time, altitude shifting, and leading projects.

  • I'm frequently described by colleagues with terms mentioned in the job description such as being organized, detailed-oriented, and thorough (i.e. "leaving no stone left unturned").

  • I'm 10+ years into my career - I don't need to be micromanaged and have experience (and strong positive feedback) hiring and managing people, something I'd be doing in this role.

• Cultural fit:

  • I'm a hard worker earning my way every day and highly respected by my colleagues, with strong references everywhere I've worked.

  • Just for this job application alone, I've spent the last few days ravenously listening to hours of podcasts with Erik and used ChatGPT to help me quickly get up to speed with his voluminous written content online.

  • My colleagues often share amazement at how I'm everywhere at once, extremely responsive in Slack or similar forums, managing communication and connecting dots between channels.

  • I have a personal tendency to defer the center of attention to others (aligned with being a low-ego team player). This has led me to find tremendous personal value supercharging others. My favorite role has been a Chief of Staff role where I was our division president's trusted strategic thought partner and accountability partner, pushing him to be a better operator for our team, often advising him to delegate those tasks that required strong operations skills to me so he could focus his time on the unique things that only he could do.

  • This role would manage a team of other Chief-of-Staff-like roles (CoS focused on networks, CoS for research, a career CoS). This is extremely appealing to me - it seems exactly like the type of team I'd want to work most closely with, i.e. a bunch of other operators who are chiefs of staff in their own arenas. I also have no doubt given Erik's network and reputation that it would be a team composed exclusively of top talent.

  • For the last 5 years, I've embodied my current company's culture of Extreme Ownership and Radical Candor, which from what I can tell overlaps with Erik's way of doing business: being proactive and direct (in a Non-Violent Communication type of way).

  • I build in public - transparency is the theme of my best-performing content selected for data science publications, such as how I used Reddit's ranking algorithm to win my office NFL pool, or my historically well-performing March Madness picks. It's also why I hyperlink so much of this text - I like to show my thought process and my sources.

  • I love Erik's commentary on a model whereby a Chief of Staff could be a true partner and producer for a creator and take a percentage of all of the creator's revenue in exchange for taking all the stuff they don't like doing (or aren't good at) off their plate. Erik may have only been thinking about this type of partnership in the context of his content businesses, but I'd certainly entertain a similar model with Erik should there be mutual interest there.

Continued in comments (I seem to have met Manifold's limit for description length! Scroll or resort to see oldest comments or go to link here)👇

Feedback welcomed if you think there's anything else I could do to bolster my candidacy.

If I do get invited to interview, I'll create a new market for my chances at receiving an offer.