Which coin was selected (intermediate mode)
3
100Ṁ427
Sep 30
51%
Coin 1
33%
Coin 2
16%
Coin 3
0.5%
Other

Which coin was selected?

There are three simulated coins:

Coin 1: .50 probability of heads

Coin 2: .60 probability of heads

Coin 3: .40 probability of heads


I will randomly select a coin and flip it 1-3 times per day until 25 flips have been performed. The coins are not equally likely to be selected. Coin 1 is selected with probability .50, whereas coins 2 and 3 are selected with probability .25. I will not participate in this market. Which coin was selected?

Notes

I am learning the manifold interface. So I accidentally used the default setting which created an "other" option. My apologies! To be clear, the market will not resolve to other.


Outcomes

1. Tails
2. Heads
3. Heads
4. Tails
5. Heads
6. Heads


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reposted

The outcome of the 6th coin flip is heads. Come and get it!

reposted

The next coin flip is posted above!

Don't make @4fa shadow box in the corner.

reposted

Hello folks! The next outcome is tails.

The third coin flip is posted folks.

I summoned the great god Xoshiro from the silicon realm and He spoke in a deep, resonating voice which projected from every direction: "The next coin flip is heads." and it was so.

I think a second coin flip is imminent this evening. I can feel it in the air.

Bring everyone. Bring your meemaw and your grandpapi, your mechanic, and your au pair, if you do declare. Impress your sweetheart in a game of skill and chance.

The first outcome is posted in the description.

By the way, does anyone know whether the "other" category can be removed? Did manifold recently add it as a new feature? It doesn't make sense in markets where the outcomes are a closed set.

opened a Ṁ10 YES at 25% order

@dfish I think it can only be toggled during creation.

@4fa. Ok. I understand now. If I switch to no one can create new answers, it will remove the other option. I'm still learning the interface. I guess its free money for you!

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