Was urn 1 selected?
3
100Ṁ43
Jan 6
50%
chance

There are special two urns containing bobbleheads of the three stooges instead of colored marbles. The table below provides a tally of each type of bobblehead for each urn.

One of the two urns is selected with equal probability. Your mission, if you accept the challenge, is to figure out which urn was selected. Starting tomorrow, I will select a bobblehead from the urn randomly and without replacement and post the result below. I will continue to select one bobblehead each day until four have been selected. The market will resolve one day after the fourth bobblehead is selected.

The selection process will be carried out using a computer program that I wrote. For this reason, I will not participate in this market.

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opened a Ṁ10 YES at 50% order

If "[o]ne of the two urns is selected with equal probability", why was the market initialized at 20%? 🤔

@4fa I randomly selected between 20 and 80% to create an incentive to participate.

opened a Ṁ3 NO at 49% order

@dfish Oops, I took all the incentive. 😅

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