Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Spider-Man: Brand New Day earns more than $170,000,000 (strictly greater than $170M) in domestic gross earnings during its second weekend in North American theatres (August 7 – August 9, 2026). Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

• Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined using the official "actual" (not Sunday estimated) domestic weekend gross reported by Box Office Mojo or The Numbers. In the event of a slight discrepancy between the two sources, The Numbers's reported figure will be prioritized.

• Timeframe: The second weekend is defined as Friday, August 7, 2026, through Sunday, August 9, 2026.

• Resolution Timing: The market will resolve once final weekend actuals are published by the tracking sites, typically on Monday, August 10, or Tuesday, August 11, 2026.

Background

Directed by Destin Daniel Cretton and starring Tom Holland and Zendaya, Spider-Man: Brand New Day shattered box office records during its opening weekend (July 31 – August 2, 2026). The film posted an unprecedented $360 million domestic debut, surpassing Avengers: Endgame ($357.1 million) to claim the largest domestic opening weekend in cinema history. It also crossed the $1 billion global milestone in just six days.

This market gauges the film's second-weekend hold. To earn more than $170 million in its sophomore frame, Spider-Man: Brand New Day must suffer a second-weekend decline of roughly 52.7% or less from its historic opening.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.