1,000
3.00I’ve asked for an official final average value in the underlying market. If none is given by 4:20 PM Eastern I will resolve based on my calculation, which was verified by the two big YES holders here.
According to my calculations this market is now mathematically guaranteed to be YES even if the probability of the underlying market were zero from now until close (the average would then be 60.02%). Can you confirm @JosephNoonan ?
@MarcusAbramovitch we’ve all resolved these meta markets as soon as they were mathematically determined. Is there some sensible reason not to do so?
@MarcusAbramovitch like, I didn’t see any such suggestion when all the Twitter CEO markets were determined yesterday, but instead people asking authors to resolve early as soon as the outcome was known.
@deagol right, because that's a real event. I think meta markets are different and deserve an official answer.
I won't push too hard on this though since I don't care that much.
@MarcusAbramovitch ok I’ll wait for CockButtSomething to give an official answer to where their market’s average ended up after 6/9 4:20 AM Eastern before resolving this. Note that them resolving their market YES is not enough information to resolve this one.
@JosephNoonan Thanks, since Marcus is the largest YES holder I’ll honor his stance on having an official number from the underlying market’s author. Sorry if everyone’s capital is stuck here for a few more days.
@deagol you shouldn't differ to my wishes on your market, regardless of my position size. It's your market.
There's a reasonable case for you resolving it early. That's fine to do
@MarcusAbramovitch I’m not deferring the decision to you, I’m deciding to honor your request, considering your position. Note I didn’t tell Joseph “please convince Marcus!” I know It’s solely my choice and responsibility, but I’m always open to suggestions and can change my mind. This case isn’t that controversial so, like you, I wouldn’t push hard one way or the other.