Will "Is rationalussy good or bad" be decided by more than 10%?
9
135
150
resolved Jun 9
Resolved
YES

Will the final average of the rounded percentages in the embedded market be >60% or <40%?

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predicted YES

I’ve asked for an official final average value in the underlying market. If none is given by 4:20 PM Eastern I will resolve based on my calculation, which was verified by the two big YES holders here.

predicted YES

@deagol oops, forgot about this. Sorry for the delay.

predicted YES

officially confirmed by creator

predicted YES

According to my calculations this market is now mathematically guaranteed to be YES even if the probability of the underlying market were zero from now until close (the average would then be 60.02%). Can you confirm @JosephNoonan ?

predicted YES

@deagol I agree but i still think you should still wait until normal market end time

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch we’ve all resolved these meta markets as soon as they were mathematically determined. Is there some sensible reason not to do so?

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch like, I didn’t see any such suggestion when all the Twitter CEO markets were determined yesterday, but instead people asking authors to resolve early as soon as the outcome was known.

predicted YES

@deagol right, because that's a real event. I think meta markets are different and deserve an official answer.

I won't push too hard on this though since I don't care that much.

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch ok I’ll wait for CockButtSomething to give an official answer to where their market’s average ended up after 6/9 4:20 AM Eastern before resolving this. Note that them resolving their market YES is not enough information to resolve this one.

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@deagol Yeah, I can confirm that it's now a guaranteed YES.

predicted YES

@JosephNoonan Thanks, since Marcus is the largest YES holder I’ll honor his stance on having an official number from the underlying market’s author. Sorry if everyone’s capital is stuck here for a few more days.

predicted YES

@deagol you shouldn't differ to my wishes on your market, regardless of my position size. It's your market.

There's a reasonable case for you resolving it early. That's fine to do

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch I’m not deferring the decision to you, I’m deciding to honor your request, considering your position. Note I didn’t tell Joseph “please convince Marcus!” I know It’s solely my choice and responsibility, but I’m always open to suggestions and can change my mind. This case isn’t that controversial so, like you, I wouldn’t push hard one way or the other.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

My prediction is that it'll be between 64.1% and 64.2%.

predicted YES

To be <40%, the future average has to be <29.12%.

To be >60%, the future average has to be >58.32%.